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Uthai Thani v Nakhon Pathom

Uthai Thani
2–0Full time
Nakhon Pathom

FA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 14:30
Uthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom UTHAI THANI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Uthai Thani win67%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.170
The market’s Brier score0.118

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Uthai Thani win at 67%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Uthai Thani was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–22–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Uthai Thani v Nakhon Pathom
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Uthai Thani win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
  5. 35′We said Uthai Thani at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–32–12
  6. 37′We said Uthai Thani at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–33–12
  7. 40′We published Uthai Thani at 67%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  8. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Uthai Thani 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
  9. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Uthai Thani win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
  10. 42′Uthai Thani find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  11. 43′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Uthai Thani 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
  13. 47′HALF-TIME Uthai Thani 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
  14. 56′We published Uthai Thani at 67%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 56′A goal for Uthai Thani on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Uthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
  17. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Uthai Thani win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
  18. 73′We published Uthai Thani at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 93′Full time, 2–0. We called Uthai Thani at 67% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  20. FTFULL TIME Uthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
  21. FTUthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom · Uthai Thani win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uthai Thani are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uthai Thani 67%, draw 22%, Nakhon Pathom 11%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Uthai Thani v Nakhon PathomBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Uthai Thani win67%
Draw22%
Nakhon Pathom win11%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueUthai Thani Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uthai Thani

Nakhon Pathom

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uthai thani winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 16 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off
67% The market72%
Us67%
Market72%

We make Uthai Thani a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Uthai Thani v Nakhon Pathom1.88 – 0.63
The market · Uthai Thani win72% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 15 OCT 04:3320 OCT 11:43
Our probability · Uthai Thani win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Uthai Thani win67%72%−5
Draw22%18%+4
Nakhon Pathom win11%10%+1
Over 2.5 goals46%61%−15
Both teams to score40%47%−7
Over 1.5 goals72%82%−10
Over 3.5 goals24%41%−17
Uthai Thani or draw89%90%−1
Uthai Thani clean sheet53%––
Nakhon Pathom clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%
0123450 8.5 4.8 1 15.0 10.0 3.0 2 14.3 9.1 2.9 3 9.0 5.7 4 4.2 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Uthai Thani down, Nakhon Pathom across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsNAK 0–2 UTH · NAK 1–0 UTH · UTH 2–1 NAK · UTH 1–1 NAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

UTHAI THANI

No matches in our record yet.

NAKHON PATHOM

No matches in our record yet.