

Uthai Thani v Nakhon Pathom
Uthai Thani
Nakhon PathomFA Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Uthai Thani win at 67%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Uthai Thani was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–22–11
- 1′KICK-OFF Uthai Thani v Nakhon Pathom
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Uthai Thani win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
- 35′We said Uthai Thani at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–32–12
- 37′We said Uthai Thani at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–33–12
- 40′We published Uthai Thani at 67%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Uthai Thani 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Uthai Thani win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
- 42′Uthai Thani find the net on 41′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–2
- 43′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 88–10–2
- 45′SECOND HALF Uthai Thani 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 47′HALF-TIME Uthai Thani 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 56′We published Uthai Thani at 67%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 56′A goal for Uthai Thani on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Uthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Uthai Thani win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
- 73′We published Uthai Thani at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 93′Full time, 2–0. We called Uthai Thani at 67% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Uthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
- FTUthai Thani 2–0 Nakhon Pathom · Uthai Thani win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Uthai Thani are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Uthai Thani 67%, draw 22%, Nakhon Pathom 11%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 40%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Uthai Thani win67%
Nakhon Pathom win11%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00
RoundRound of 64
VenueUthai Thani Provincial Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Uthai ThaniMIN
Nakhon PathomEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Uthai Thani
Nakhon Pathom
Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 1
Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Uthai Thani a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 66%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uthai Thani win | 67% | 72% | −5 |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | +4 |
| Nakhon Pathom win | 11% | 10% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 61% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 47% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 41% | −17 |
| Uthai Thani or draw | 89% | 90% | −1 |
| Uthai Thani clean sheet | 53% | – | – |
| Nakhon Pathom clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season
UTHAI THANI
No matches in our record yet.
NAKHON PATHOM
No matches in our record yet.