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Model 1.2

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Suphanburi v Lamphun Warrior

Suphanburi
0–4Full time
Lamphun Warrior

FA Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 14:30
Suphanburi 0–4 Lamphun Warrior LAMPHUN WARRIOR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lamphun Warrior win68%
The market said84%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.157
The market’s Brier score0.038

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lamphun Warrior win at 68%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Lamphun Warrior was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 13–19–68
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Suphanburi v Lamphun Warrior
  4. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Lamphun Warrior win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
  5. 38′We said Lamphun Warrior at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 15–29–56
  6. 42′We said Lamphun Warrior at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 15–31–54
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Suphanburi 0–0 Lamphun Warrior
  8. 47′HALF-TIME Suphanburi 0–0 Lamphun Warrior
  9. 51′We said Lamphun Warrior at 68%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 14–36–49
  10. 53′We published Lamphun Warrior at 68%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 2–12–86
  11. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Lamphun Warrior win: 68% at kick-off, 48% now
  12. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Suphanburi 0–1 Lamphun Warrior
  13. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Lamphun Warrior win: 68% at kick-off, 86% now
  14. 54′Lamphun Warrior score on 53′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–12–86
  15. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Lamphun Warrior win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
  16. 73′We published Lamphun Warrior at 68%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  17. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Suphanburi 0–2 Lamphun Warrior
  18. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Lamphun Warrior win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
  19. 74′Lamphun Warrior find the net on 74′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  20. 79′We published Lamphun Warrior at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  21. 83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Suphanburi
  22. 84′A red card for Suphanburi on 83′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  23. 84′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  24. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Suphanburi 0–3 Lamphun Warrior
  25. 85′A goal for Lamphun Warrior on 85′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  26. 90′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  27. 90′Lamphun Warrior score on 90′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  28. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Suphanburi 0–4 Lamphun Warrior
  29. 93′Full time, 0–4. We called Lamphun Warrior at 68% — that one lands. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  30. FTFULL TIME Suphanburi 0–4 Lamphun Warrior
  31. FTSuphanburi 0–4 Lamphun Warrior · Lamphun Warrior win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lamphun Warrior are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suphanburi 13%, draw 19%, Lamphun Warrior 68%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Suphanburi v Lamphun WarriorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Suphanburi win13%
Draw19%
Lamphun Warrior win68%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:00

RoundRound of 64

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suphanburi

Lamphun Warrior

542Days since last match4

Last match: 26 Apr 2025 · Thai League 2

Last match: 16 Oct · Thai League 1

0Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lamphun warrior winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
68% The market84%
Us68%
Market84%

We make Lamphun Warrior a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Suphanburi v Lamphun Warrior0.91 – 2.27
The market · Lamphun Warrior win84% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80%85%90% 15 OCT 04:3320 OCT 11:43
Our probability · Lamphun Warrior win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Suphanburi win13%5%+8
Draw19%10%+9
Lamphun Warrior win68%84%−16
Over 2.5 goals62%79%−17
Both teams to score54%50%+4
Over 1.5 goals83%90%−7
Over 3.5 goals39%62%−23
Suphanburi or draw32%16%+16
Suphanburi clean sheet10%––
Lamphun Warrior clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.7%
0123450 4.4 9.1 10.7 8.1 4.6 2.11 3.5 8.9 9.7 7.4 4.2 2 3.9 4.4 3.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Suphanburi down, Lamphun Warrior across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

SUPHANBURI

No matches in our record yet.

LAMPHUN WARRIOR

No matches in our record yet.