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Model 1.2

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Ratchaburi v Pattani

Ratchaburi
4–2Full time
Pattani

FA Cup · WED 21 OCT · Dragon Solar Park

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31
Ratchaburi 4–2 Pattani RATCHABURI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ratchaburi win78%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.075
The market’s Brier score0.158

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ratchaburi win at 78%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Ratchaburi was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ratchaburi v Pattani
  4. 7′We published Ratchaburi at 78%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  5. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Ratchaburi 1–0 Pattani
  6. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Ratchaburi win: 78% at kick-off, 92% now
  7. 8′Ratchaburi find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–6–2
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 90–8–2
  9. 41′We published Ratchaburi at 78%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  10. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Ratchaburi 2–0 Pattani
  11. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Ratchaburi win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
  12. 43′A goal for Ratchaburi on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Ratchaburi 2–0 Pattani
  14. 47′HALF-TIME Ratchaburi 2–0 Pattani
  15. 53′We published Ratchaburi at 78%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  16. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ratchaburi 3–0 Pattani
  17. 54′Ratchaburi score on 53′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 60′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ratchaburi 4–0 Pattani
  20. 62′Ratchaburi find the net on 61′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 81′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  22. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Ratchaburi 4–1 Pattani
  23. 84′A goal for Pattani on 81′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  24. 86′I. Hayiyusoh scores for Pattani on 82′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 94′6 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  26. 94′Pattani score on 90′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  27. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Ratchaburi 4–2 Pattani
  28. FTFULL TIME Ratchaburi 4–2 Pattani
  29. FTRatchaburi 4–2 Pattani · Ratchaburi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ratchaburi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ratchaburi 78%, draw 14%, Pattani 8%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ratchaburi v PattaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Ratchaburi win78%
Draw14%
Pattani win8%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueDragon Solar Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ratchaburi

Pattani

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 1

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ratchaburi winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
78% The market68%
Us78%
Market68%

We make Ratchaburi a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ratchaburi v Pattani2.69 – 0.75
The market · Ratchaburi win68% · ours 78%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 12:45
Our probability · Ratchaburi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ratchaburi win78%68%+10
Draw14%20%−6
Pattani win8%12%−4
Over 2.5 goals67%60%+7
Both teams to score50%51%−1
Over 1.5 goals86%81%+5
Over 3.5 goals45%40%+5
Ratchaburi or draw92%88%+4
Ratchaburi clean sheet47%––
Pattani clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%
0123450 3.4 2.2 1 8.4 6.7 2.4 2 11.6 8.7 3.3 3 10.4 7.8 2.9 4 7.0 5.3 5 3.7 2.8
under 2% 5% 12%+Ratchaburi down, Pattani across0–5 goals a side shown (94.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsPAT 2–0 RAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

RATCHABURI

No matches in our record yet.

PATTANI

No matches in our record yet.