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Home › Football › FA Cup › Khon Kaen United v BG Pathum United

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Khon Kaen United v BG Pathum United

Khon Kaen United
1–0Full time
BG Pathum United

FA Cup · WED 21 OCT · Khonkaen Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 14:31
Khon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United BG PATHUM UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said BG Pathum United win64%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.176
The market’s Brier score1.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said BG Pathum United win at 64%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: BG Pathum United 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 15–21–64
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Khon Kaen United v BG Pathum United
  4. 16′A goal for Khon Kaen United on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 40–26–35
  5. 16′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–0 · 40–26–35
  6. 16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Khon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United
  7. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 35% now
  8. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Khon Kaen United win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was BG Pathum United win 61%)
  9. 17′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 40–26–34
  10. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  11. 28′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 43–28–29
  12. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 44–28–28
  13. 38′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 47–29–24
  14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Khon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Khon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United
  17. 48′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 52–29–19
  18. 57′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 57–29–14
  19. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
  20. 66′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 64–27–9
  21. 73′Khon Kaen United score on 72′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  22. 73′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  23. 73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Khon Kaen United 2–0 BG Pathum United
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 1% now
  25. 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Khon Kaen United
  26. FTFULL TIME Khon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United
  27. FTKhon Kaen United 1–0 BG Pathum United · BG Pathum United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BG Pathum United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khon Kaen United 15%, draw 20%, BG Pathum United 64%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Khon Kaen United v BG Pathum UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Khon Kaen United win15%
Draw20%
BG Pathum United win64%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueKhonkaen Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khon Kaen United

BG Pathum United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 1

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bg pathum united winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
64% The market60%
Us64%
Market60%

We make BG Pathum United a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Khon Kaen United v BG Pathum United0.93 – 2.11
The market · BG Pathum United win60% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 11:43
Our probability · BG Pathum United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Khon Kaen United win15%17%−2
Draw20%23%−3
BG Pathum United win64%60%+4
Over 2.5 goals59%54%+5
Both teams to score53%51%+2
Over 1.5 goals81%77%+4
Over 3.5 goals36%33%+3
Khon Kaen United or draw36%40%−4
Khon Kaen United clean sheet12%––
BG Pathum United clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.7%
0123450 5.1 9.8 10.7 7.5 4.0 1 4.1 9.7 9.9 7.0 3.7 2 2.1 4.3 4.6 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Khon Kaen United down, BG Pathum United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsBGP 4–1 KHO · KHO 0–3 BGP · BGP 3–2 KHO · KHO 1–1 BGP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

KHON KAEN UNITED

No matches in our record yet.

BG PATHUM UNITED

No matches in our record yet.