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Model 1.2

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Kasetsart FC v Chanthaburi

Kasetsart FC
1–3Full time
Chanthaburi

FA Cup · WED 21 OCT · Insee Chantarasatit Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 13:30
Kasetsart FC 1–3 Chanthaburi KASETSART FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kasetsart FC win37%
The market said25%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.650
The market’s Brier score0.415

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kasetsart FC win at 37%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Kasetsart FC v Chanthaburi
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Kasetsart FC was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–34
  4. 8′We said Kasetsart FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–21–63
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Kasetsart FC 0–1 Chanthaburi
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Kasetsart FC win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
  7. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Chanthaburi win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Kasetsart FC win 37%)
  8. 9′Chanthaburi find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
  9. 16′We said Kasetsart FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–64
  10. 23′We said Kasetsart FC at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
  11. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Kasetsart FC 0–2 Chanthaburi
  12. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Kasetsart FC win: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
  13. 24′A goal for Chanthaburi on 24′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
  14. 35′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–2–97
  15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kasetsart FC 0–3 Chanthaburi
  16. 36′Chanthaburi score on 35′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  17. 43′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  18. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Kasetsart FC 1–3 Chanthaburi
  19. 44′Kasetsart FC find the net on 43′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Kasetsart FC 1–3 Chanthaburi
  21. 46′HALF-TIME Kasetsart FC 1–3 Chanthaburi
  22. 94′Full time, 1–3. We called Kasetsart FC at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  23. FTFULL TIME Kasetsart FC 1–3 Chanthaburi
  24. FTKasetsart FC 1–3 Chanthaburi · Kasetsart FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kasetsart FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kasetsart FC 37%, draw 28%, Chanthaburi 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kasetsart FC v ChanthaburiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Kasetsart FC win37%
Draw28%
Chanthaburi win34%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 11:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueInsee Chantarasatit Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kasetsart FC

Chanthaburi

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 2

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kasetsart fc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off
37% The market25%
Us37%
Market25%

We make Kasetsart FC a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kasetsart FC v Chanthaburi1.28 – 1.22
The market · Kasetsart FC win25% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Kasetsart FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kasetsart FC win37%25%+12
Draw28%28%0
Chanthaburi win34%47%−13
Over 2.5 goals45%47%−2
Both teams to score51%51%0
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals24%27%−3
Kasetsart FC or draw66%53%+13
Kasetsart FC clean sheet30%––
Chanthaburi clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%
0123450 9.2 9.5 6.1 2.5 1 10.0 13.1 7.6 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.8 3 2.9 3.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kasetsart FC down, Chanthaburi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting2.29
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsCHA 2–0 KAS · KAS 0–0 CHA · CHA 1–0 KAS · KAS 1–2 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

KASETSART FC

No matches in our record yet.

CHANTHABURI

No matches in our record yet.