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Model 1.2

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Bangkok v Nong Bua Pitchaya

Bangkok
0–2Full time
Nong Bua Pitchaya

FA Cup · WED 21 OCT · Chalerm Phrakiat Bang Mod Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:01
Bangkok 0–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya NONG BUA PITCHAYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nong Bua Pitchaya win39%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.571
The market’s Brier score0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nong Bua Pitchaya win at 39%.
  2. 7′Much as we predicted: Nong Bua Pitchaya was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
  3. 44′A goal for Nong Bua Pitchaya on 44′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–66
  4. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bangkok 0–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya
  5. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
  6. 44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Nong Bua Pitchaya
  7. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Bangkok 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Bangkok 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
  10. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Nong Bua Pitchaya win 34%)
  11. 55′We expected about 3.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–38–31
  12. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  13. 63′A goal for Nong Bua Pitchaya on 63′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
  14. 63′We published Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 7–21–72
  15. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Bangkok 0–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya
  16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, 72% now
  17. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Nong Bua Pitchaya win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 45%)
  18. 67′We published Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
  19. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
  20. 75′We published Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  21. 80′We published Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–14–85
  22. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
  23. 84′We published Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  24. 86′Nong Bua Pitchaya score on 86′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  25. 86′We published Nong Bua Pitchaya at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  26. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Bangkok 0–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
  27. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
  28. FTFULL TIME Bangkok 0–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
  29. FTBangkok 0–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya · Nong Bua Pitchaya win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Nong Bua Pitchaya just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bangkok 39%, draw 23%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 39%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Bangkok v Nong Bua PitchayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Bangkok win39%
Draw23%
Nong Bua Pitchaya win39%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:30

RoundRound of 64

VenueChalerm Phrakiat Bang Mod Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bangkok

Nong Bua Pitchaya

179Days since last match4

Last match: 25 Apr · Thai League 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

0Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nong bua pitchaya winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
39% The market41%
Us39%
Market41%

We make Nong Bua Pitchaya a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bangkok v Nong Bua Pitchaya1.80 – 1.82
The market · Nong Bua Pitchaya win41% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 12:15
Our probability · Nong Bua Pitchaya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bangkok win39%32%+7
Draw23%27%−4
Nong Bua Pitchaya win39%41%−2
Over 2.5 goals69%57%+12
Both teams to score69%61%+8
Over 1.5 goals87%78%+9
Over 3.5 goals48%37%+11
Bangkok or draw61%59%+2
Bangkok clean sheet17%––
Nong Bua Pitchaya clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.4 4.6 4.5 2.7 1 4.6 9.2 7.7 4.7 2.2 2 4.5 7.7 6.8 4.1 3 2.7 4.6 4.1 2.5 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bangkok down, Nong Bua Pitchaya across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsBAN 0–3 NON · NON 3–2 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

BANGKOK

No matches in our record yet.

NONG BUA PITCHAYA

No matches in our record yet.