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Ayutthaya FC v Muangthong United

Ayutthaya FC
2–1Full time
Muangthong United

FA Cup · WED 21 OCT · Ayutthaya Province Stadium

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:01
Ayutthaya FC 2–1 Muangthong United AYUTTHAYA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ayutthaya FC win41%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.529
The market’s Brier score0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ayutthaya FC win at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Ayutthaya FC was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ayutthaya FC v Muangthong United
  4. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Ayutthaya FC win 36%)
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Ayutthaya FC 0–0 Muangthong United
  6. 47′HALF-TIME Ayutthaya FC 0–0 Muangthong United
  7. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Ayutthaya FC win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  8. 52′🟥 RED CARD · 52' Muangthong United
  9. 53′We published Ayutthaya FC at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  10. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ayutthaya FC 1–0 Muangthong United
  11. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ayutthaya FC win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
  12. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Ayutthaya FC win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 44%)
  13. 54′Ayutthaya FC score on 54′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  14. 55′A red card for Muangthong United on 53′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 75–19–5
  15. 66′We published Ayutthaya FC at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  16. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Ayutthaya FC win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  17. 69′We published Ayutthaya FC at 41%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
  18. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Ayutthaya FC 2–0 Muangthong United
  19. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Ayutthaya FC win: 41% at kick-off, 97% now
  20. 70′Ayutthaya FC find the net on 69′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  21. 71′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  22. 83′We published Ayutthaya FC at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  23. 89′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  24. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ayutthaya FC 2–1 Muangthong United
  25. 90′A goal for Muangthong United on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
  26. 93′Red cards for both sides: Ayutthaya FC down to ten, Muangthong United to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 98–2–0
  27. 93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Ayutthaya FC
  28. 94′Full time, 2–1. We called Ayutthaya FC at 41% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  29. FTFULL TIME Ayutthaya FC 2–1 Muangthong United
  30. FTAyutthaya FC 2–1 Muangthong United · Ayutthaya FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ayutthaya FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayutthaya FC 41%, draw 28%, Muangthong United 32%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Ayutthaya FC v Muangthong UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Ayutthaya FC win41%
Draw28%
Muangthong United win32%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 12:30

RoundRound of 64

VenueAyutthaya Province Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayutthaya FC

Muangthong United

5Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ayutthaya fc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
41% The market53%
Us41%
Market53%

We make Ayutthaya FC a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ayutthaya FC v Muangthong United1.45 – 1.25
The market · Ayutthaya FC win53% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 12:15
Our probability · Ayutthaya FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ayutthaya FC win41%53%−12
Draw28%26%+2
Muangthong United win32%20%+12
Over 2.5 goals50%49%+1
Both teams to score55%51%+4
Over 1.5 goals76%72%+4
Over 3.5 goals29%29%0
Ayutthaya FC or draw68%80%−12
Ayutthaya FC clean sheet29%––
Muangthong United clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%
0123450 8.1 7.4 5.3 2.2 1 8.7 13.1 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.4 2.3 3 3.4 4.2 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ayutthaya FC down, Muangthong United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsMUA 0–1 AYU · AYU 2–2 MUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

AYUTTHAYA FC

No matches in our record yet.

MUANGTHONG UNITED

No matches in our record yet.