Young Africans v Mashujaa prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Young AfricansDrawMashujaa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Young Africans 84%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Young Africans are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Young Africans 84%, draw 13%, Mashujaa 3%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 27%.

The AI’s read on Young Africans v MashujaaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Young Africans win84%

Draw13%

Mashujaa win3%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueKMC Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Young Africans

Mashujaa

3Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · young africans winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

84% The market–

Us84%

We make Young Africans an 84% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–0.4, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Young Africans v Mashujaa~~2.56 – 0.35

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~2 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Young Africans win	84%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Mashujaa win	3%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	27%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Young Africans or draw	97%	–	–
Young Africans clean sheet	71%	–	–
Mashujaa clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 17.5%

0123450 6.1 1 13.9 5.3 2 17.5 6.1 3 14.8 5.1 4 9.5 3.2 5 5.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Young Africans down, Mashujaa across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Young Africans at home: 2.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mashujaa away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.56 goals for Young Africans, 0.35 for Mashujaa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAS 0–2 YOU · YOU 6–0 MAS · MAS 0–5 YOU · YOU 3–2 MAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 23 Aug

YOUNG AFRICANS

WWWWLD4–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

MASHUJAA

LWLWWL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5