Tabora United v Geita Gold prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tabora UnitedDrawGeita Gold

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tabora United 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tabora United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tabora United 50%, draw 28%, Geita Gold 21%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Tabora United v Geita GoldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tabora United win50%

Draw28%

Geita Gold win21%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAli Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tabora United

Geita Gold

5Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 16 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tabora united winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Tabora United a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tabora United v Geita Gold~~1.44 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tabora United win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tabora United win	50%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Geita Gold win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Tabora United or draw	79%	–	–
Tabora United clean sheet	44%	–	–
Geita Gold clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 11.4 8.0 3.7 1 14.1 12.7 5.1 2 10.5 8.5 3.6 3 5.1 4.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tabora United down, Geita Gold across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tabora United at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Geita Gold away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Tabora United, 0.84 for Geita Gold. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TAB 2–1 GEI · GEI 0–0 TAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug

TABORA UNITED

DLDWLD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

GEITA GOLD

WDLLLL6–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Namungo	9	−3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	−5	10
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	−8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5