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Simba v Young Africans

Simba

2–1Full time

Young Africans

Ligi kuu Bara · SAT 10 OCT · Isamuhyo Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Simba 2–1 Young Africans SIMBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Simba win~~35%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.633

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Simba win at 35%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Simba 35% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
9′A goal for Young Africans on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–65
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 36% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 12% now
24′A goal for Young Africans on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–22–68
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 12% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 36% now
32′We said Simba at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Young Africans
45′We said Simba at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–21–72
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–21–72
45′HALF-TIME Simba 0–1 Young Africans
46′SECOND HALF Simba 0–1 Young Africans
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Young Africans win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Simba win 6%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Young Africans win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Simba win 6%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Young Africans win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Simba win 6%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Young Africans win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Simba win 6%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Young Africans win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Simba win 6%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Simba win: 35% at kick-off, 6% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Young Africans win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Simba win 6%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Young Africans
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Simba 1–1 Young Africans
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
80′⚽ GOAL · 6' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
80′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Young Africans
80′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Young Africans
80′⚽ GOAL · 68' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
80′⚽ GOAL · 72' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Simba
83′⚽ GOAL · 6' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
83′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Young Africans
83′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Young Africans
83′⚽ GOAL · 68' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
83′⚽ GOAL · 72' Simba 2–1 Young Africans
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Simba
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Simba
FTFULL TIME Simba 2–1 Young Africans
FTSimba 2–1 Young Africans · Simba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Simba win35%

Draw32%

Young Africans win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Isamuhyo Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Simba

Formation not confirmed

39 A. Rafiu Kassali

26 N. Chilambo

5 A. Mligo

25 O. Toure

23 R. De Reuck

21 Y. Kagoma

7 L. Gueye

35 N. Maema

34 E. Mpanzu

17 C. Chama

20 A. A. Oura

Coach · Steve Barker

Substitutes

28 · H. Abel

– · Duchu

3 · N. Kibabage

– · I. Nindi

8 · I. Jabaar

18 · M. Abraham

29 · I. Doumbia

– · I. Mgunda

10 · I. Loemba

11 · K. Makgalwa

Young Africans

Formation not confirmed

39 D. Diarra

21 K. Yao

23 C. Boka

4 I. Bacca

3 B. Mwamnyeto

38 D. Abuya

7 M. Nzengeli

27 M. Yahya

13 P. Shalulile

22 A. Kangwanda

11 H. Zakouani

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · A. Mshary

– · M. Hussein

– · O. Komara

36 · I. Kazimoto

– · A. Mohamed

8 · F. Ngoma

19 · S. Abushiri

29 · E. Mwijage

24 · C. Mzize

9 · C. Toure

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Simba

Formation not confirmed

39 A. Rafiu Kassali

26 N. Chilambo

5 A. Mligo

25 O. Toure

23 R. De Reuck

21 Y. Kagoma

7 L. Gueye

35 N. Maema

34 E. Mpanzu

17 C. Chama

20 A. A. Oura

Coach · Steve Barker

Substitutes

28 · H. Abel

– · Duchu

3 · N. Kibabage

– · I. Nindi

8 · I. Jabaar

18 · M. Abraham

29 · I. Doumbia

– · I. Mgunda

10 · I. Loemba

11 · K. Makgalwa

Young Africans

Formation not confirmed

39 D. Diarra

21 K. Yao

23 C. Boka

4 I. Bacca

3 B. Mwamnyeto

38 D. Abuya

7 M. Nzengeli

27 M. Yahya

13 P. Shalulile

22 A. Kangwanda

11 H. Zakouani

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · A. Mshary

– · M. Hussein

– · O. Komara

36 · I. Kazimoto

– · A. Mohamed

8 · F. Ngoma

19 · S. Abushiri

29 · E. Mwijage

24 · C. Mzize

9 · C. Toure

Our number · simba winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

35% The market34%

Us35%

~~Market~~34%

We make Simba a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · simba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Simba win	35%	34%	+1
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Young Africans win	33%	35%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	22%	−8
Simba or draw	67%	65%	+2
Simba clean sheet	38%	–	–
Young Africans clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.5 12.6 6.5 2.2 1 12.9 13.7 6.5 2.2 2 7.0 6.8 3.4 3 2.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Simba down, Young Africans across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,269 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.9% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Simba at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Young Africans away: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Simba, 0.99 for Young Africans. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIM 2–2 YOU · YOU 0–0 SIM · YOU 2–0 SIM · SIM 0–1 YOU

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara

SIMBA

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

YOUNG AFRICANS

WWWWWW3–1 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Young Africans	6	+14	18
2	Simba	6	+9	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Mashujaa	7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	7	+4	11
6	Dodoma Jiji	7	0	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10
10	Namungo	8	−4	9
11	Geita Gold	7	−3	7
12	Coastal Union	7	−5	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Kagera Sugar	7	−7	5
15	Pamba Jiji	7	−5	4
16	Fountain Gate	7	−8	4