Simba v Mbeya City prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Simba are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Simba 82%, draw 13%, Mbeya City 4%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Simba v Mbeya CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Simba win82%

Draw13%

Mbeya City win4%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueIsamuhyo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Simba

Mbeya City

3Days since last match6

Last match: 21 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · simba winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

82% The market–

Us82%

We make Simba an 82% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–0.4, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Simba v Mbeya City~~2.55 – 0.41

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 10~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Simba win	82%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Mbeya City win	4%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Simba or draw	96%	–	–
Simba clean sheet	67%	–	–
Mbeya City clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 16.5%

0123450 5.9 2.0 1 13.1 5.9 2 16.5 6.7 3 13.8 5.5 4 8.9 3.5 5 4.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Simba down, Mbeya City across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Simba at home: 2.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mbeya City away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Simba, 0.41 for Mbeya City. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MBE 0–1 SIM · SIM 3–0 MBE · SIM 3–2 MBE · MBE 1–1 SIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug

SIMBA

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 6–1

MBEYA CITY

WWDLLL2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5