Simba v Mashujaa prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Simba 6–1 Mashujaa SIMBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Simba win~~75%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.103

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.095

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Simba win at 75%.
1′KICK-OFF Simba v Mashujaa
2′Little has changed for our model: Simba 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–19–6
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Simba 1–0 Mashujaa
17′16′ and it is 1–0: Simba have scored. 1–0 · 93–6–1
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Simba win: 75% at kick-off, 93% now
18′We said Simba at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–0 · 93–6–1
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Simba 2–0 Mashujaa
29′Simba find the net on 28′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
29′We said Simba at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Simba win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 93–6–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Simba win: 75% at kick-off, 93% now
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Mashujaa
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Simba 2–0 Mashujaa · L. Gueye
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Simba win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' Simba 2–0 Mashujaa
33′Simba find the net on 33′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′Mashujaa are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Mashujaa
45′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Mashujaa
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Mashujaa
45′HALF-TIME Simba 2–0 Mashujaa
46′SECOND HALF Simba 2–0 Mashujaa
53′We said Simba at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
54′A goal for Simba on 53′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Simba 3–0 Mashujaa
55′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
59′59′ and it is 4–0: Simba have scored. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Simba 4–0 Mashujaa
60′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
62′Simba find the net on 62′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Simba 5–0 Mashujaa
64′A goal for Mashujaa on 64′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Simba 5–1 Mashujaa
65′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
69′69′ and it is 6–1: Simba have scored. 6–1 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Simba 6–1 Mashujaa
70′7 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Simba 6–1 Mashujaa
FTSimba 6–1 Mashujaa · Simba win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Simba win75%

Draw19%

Mashujaa win6%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

VenueIsamuhyo Stadium

Line-ups

Simba

Mashujaa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Simba

Mashujaa

3Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	7	+10	21
4	Mashujaa	7	+1	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Simba

Formation not confirmed

39 A. Rafiu Kassali

26 N. Chilambo

5 A. Mligo

21 Y. Kagoma

25 O. Toure

8 I. Jabaar

7 L. Gueye

35 N. Maema

34 E. Mpanzu

17 C. Chama

20 A. A. Oura

Coach · Steve Barker

Substitutes

28 · H. Abel

– · Duchu

3 · N. Kibabage

– · I. Nindi

37 · H. Semfuko

19 · B. Msimu

29 · I. Doumbia

– · I. Mgunda

18 · M. Abraham

11 · K. Makgalwa

Mashujaa

Formation not confirmed

43 M. Malik

3 H. Lyawatwa

20 M. Mwakinyuke

2 A. Mangalo

27 S. Madeleke

13 S. Mgandila

7 C. Mhagama

23 T. Simba

45 M. Joseph

54 H. Lidah

57 H. Kabunda

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · L. Kanyonga

5 · A. Mfuko

10 · S. Kihimbwa

– · M. Balama

15 · Y. Kakoko

51 · M. Vuai

21 · H. Chanongo

32 · J. H. Mahadhi

39 · M. Daudi

– · S. Bwenzi

Our number · simba winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

75% The market76%

Us75%

~~Market~~76%

We make Simba a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · simba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Simba win	75%	76%	−1
Draw	19%	18%	+2
Mashujaa win	6%	7%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	53%	−12
Both teams to score	26%	35%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−12
Simba or draw	94%	93%	+1
Simba clean sheet	69%	–	–
Mashujaa clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.8%

0123450 10.4 3.4 1 18.8 7.3 2 18.3 6.7 3 12.0 4.3 4 6.0 2.1 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Simba down, Mashujaa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,271 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.1% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Simba at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mashujaa away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for Simba, 0.37 for Mashujaa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MAS 0–3 SIM · SIM 2–0 MAS · SIM 2–1 MAS · MAS 0–1 SIM

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara

SIMBA

WWWWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

MASHUJAA

LLWLWW0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	7	+10	21
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Mashujaa	7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
6	Dodoma Jiji	7	0	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	7	−3	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Kagera Sugar	7	−7	5
15	Pamba Jiji	7	−5	4
16	Fountain Gate	7	−8	4