Namungo v Polisi Tanzania prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NamungoDrawPolisi Tanzania

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Namungo 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Namungo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Namungo 42%, draw 29%, Polisi Tanzania 29%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Namungo v Polisi TanzaniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Namungo win42%

Draw29%

Polisi Tanzania win29%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMajaliwa Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Namungo

Polisi Tanzania

5Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 23 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Namungo	9	−3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · namungo winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:25 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Namungo a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Namungo v Polisi Tanzania~~1.28 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~7 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Namungo win

Published at 40%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Namungo win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Polisi Tanzania win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Namungo or draw	71%	–	–
Namungo clean sheet	37%	–	–
Polisi Tanzania clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 11.2 9.7 5.3 1 12.2 13.4 6.5 2.2 2 8.1 8.0 4.1 3 3.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Namungo down, Polisi Tanzania across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Namungo at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Polisi Tanzania away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Namungo, 1.02 for Polisi Tanzania. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NAM 0–2 POL · POL 1–0 NAM · NAM 1–2 POL · POL 0–0 NAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 29 Aug

NAMUNGO

LLLLWW1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

POLISI TANZANIA

LLWLDD2–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Namungo	9	−3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	−5	10
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	−8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5