Namungo v Coastal Union prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Namungo 2–1 Coastal Union NAMUNGO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Namungo win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Namungo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Namungo 41%, draw 33%, Coastal Union 26%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Namungo v Coastal UnionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Namungo win41%

Draw33%

Coastal Union win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMajaliwa Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Namungo

Coastal Union

16Days since last match12

Last match: 8 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 12 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · namungo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Namungo a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Namungo v Coastal Union~~1.08 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~11 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Namungo win	41%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Coastal Union win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Namungo or draw	74%	–	–
Namungo clean sheet	45%	–	–
Coastal Union clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 11.5 4.9 1 15.7 13.6 5.2 2 8.9 7.0 2.8 3 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Namungo down, Coastal Union across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Namungo at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Coastal Union away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Namungo, 0.80 for Coastal Union. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COA 1–1 NAM · NAM 1–0 COA · NAM 0–0 COA · COA 0–2 NAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 24 Aug

NAMUNGO

WLLLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

COASTAL UNION

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5