Kagera Sugar v Polisi Tanzania prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Kagera Sugar 1–1 Polisi Tanzania POLISI TANZANIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Polisi Tanzania win~~39%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.786

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.715

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Polisi Tanzania win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Polisi Tanzania was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 34–28–38
1′KICK-OFF Kagera Sugar v Polisi Tanzania
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Polisi Tanzania
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Kagera Sugar
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Polisi Tanzania win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Kagera Sugar 0–0 Polisi Tanzania
47′SECOND HALF Kagera Sugar 0–0 Polisi Tanzania
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Polisi Tanzania win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 25–47–28
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Polisi Tanzania
56′We said Polisi Tanzania at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 25–48–27
63′We said Polisi Tanzania at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
71′We said Polisi Tanzania at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Polisi Tanzania win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
76′Kagera Sugar score on 75′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–14–2
76′We said Polisi Tanzania at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kagera Sugar 1–0 Polisi Tanzania
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Polisi Tanzania win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Kagera Sugar win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
93′Polisi Tanzania find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 2–96–2
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Kagera Sugar 1–1 Polisi Tanzania
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Kagera Sugar win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Kagera Sugar 1–1 Polisi Tanzania
FTKagera Sugar 1–1 Polisi Tanzania · Polisi Tanzania win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Polisi Tanzania are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kagera Sugar 34%, draw 28%, Polisi Tanzania 39%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Kagera Sugar v Polisi TanzaniaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kagera Sugar win34%

Draw28%

Polisi Tanzania win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKaitaba Stadium

Line-ups

Kagera Sugar

Polisi Tanzania

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kagera Sugar

Polisi Tanzania

8Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 8 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
15	Kagera Sugar	7	−7	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kagera Sugar

Formation not confirmed

48 A. Oseja

45 M. Yusufu

5 J. Masanja

14 B. Opiyo

29 J. Evastus

24 D. Milandu

13 S. Ndemla

20 D. Mhilu

37 Y. Yassin

10 E. Mvuyekule

47 M. Said

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · S. Kudo

3 · C. Luhende

19 · N. Kazimoto

– · Eduche

– · S. Seif

11 · N. Shaban

23 · A. Sketo

9 · C. Ochieng

– · Momo

– · A. Mengi

Polisi Tanzania

Formation not confirmed

40 M. Nyakanda

3 D. Mushi

22 F. Evance

45 S. Tariq

5 J. Majagi

10 J. Mtegeta

13 J. Balayazi

20 B. Mwambule

26 A. Jabiri

33 O. Masai

8 K. Mwambungu

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · H. Nassor

4 · T. Robert

21 · T. Cosmas

11 · J. Kibaya

2 · I. Ame

48 · B. Kakolanya

27 · R. Athuman

28 · D. Uromi

19 · K. Kunambi

– · M. Juma

Our number · polisi tanzania winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make Polisi Tanzania a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kagera Sugar v Polisi Tanzania~~1.22 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 19 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 10~~15 v 7

~~The market · Polisi Tanzania win~~32% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Polisi Tanzania win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kagera Sugar win	34%	37%	−3
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Polisi Tanzania win	39%	32%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	39%	+7
Both teams to score	51%	46%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	65%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Kagera Sugar or draw	61%	68%	−7
Kagera Sugar clean sheet	28%	–	–
Polisi Tanzania clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.0 9.9 6.9 3.1 1 9.1 12.9 8.0 3.6 2 5.9 7.4 4.8 2.2 3 2.5 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kagera Sugar down, Polisi Tanzania across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,274 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.3% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kagera Sugar at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Polisi Tanzania away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Kagera Sugar, 1.32 for Polisi Tanzania. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POL 0–0 KAG · KAG 2–0 POL · KAG 0–0 POL · POL 0–0 KAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 19 Aug

KAGERA SUGAR

DLLLDW1–1 · 2–6 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

POLISI TANZANIA

WWLLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
6	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	8	−5	5
15	Kagera Sugar	7	−7	5
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5