JKT Tanzania v Mbeya City prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

JKT Tanzania 2–1 Mbeya City JKT TANZANIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JKT Tanzania win~~50%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.385

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.292

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JKT Tanzania win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: JKT Tanzania 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–20
1′KICK-OFF JKT Tanzania v Mbeya City
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' JKT Tanzania
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' JKT Tanzania win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
41′We said JKT Tanzania at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–43–18
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was JKT Tanzania win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME JKT Tanzania 1–0 Mbeya City
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Mbeya City
46′SECOND HALF JKT Tanzania 1–0 Mbeya City
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Mbeya City
49′JKT Tanzania find the net on 45′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
49′We said JKT Tanzania at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' JKT Tanzania 1–0 Mbeya City
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+4' JKT Tanzania win: 50% at kick-off, 83% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' JKT Tanzania win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
57′We said JKT Tanzania at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' JKT Tanzania
73′We said JKT Tanzania at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' JKT Tanzania win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
83′We said JKT Tanzania at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′A goal for JKT Tanzania on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′We said JKT Tanzania at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' JKT Tanzania 2–0 Mbeya City
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' JKT Tanzania win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
94′Mbeya City score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
94′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' JKT Tanzania 2–1 Mbeya City
FTFULL TIME JKT Tanzania 2–1 Mbeya City
FTJKT Tanzania 2–1 Mbeya City · JKT Tanzania win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

JKT Tanzania are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JKT Tanzania 50%, draw 30%, Mbeya City 20%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on JKT Tanzania v Mbeya CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

JKT Tanzania win50%

Draw30%

Mbeya City win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueIsamuhyo Stadium

Line-ups

JKT Tanzania

Mbeya City

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JKT Tanzania

Mbeya City

9Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

JKT Tanzania

Formation not confirmed

28 R. Chalamanda

63 T. Mabula

29 S. Khamis

22 K. Kombo

2 K. Mfaume

4 H. Kapalata

24 G. Luzendaze

31 H. Nassor

41 P. Mussa

11 M. Bakari

9 V. Kusengama

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · F. Magata

38 · C. Malimi

26 · L. Makame

7 · I. Mhesa

17 · S. Bajana

34 · A. Cabaye

39 · O. Chikola

45 · S. Mkopi

51 · P. Peter

Mbeya City

Formation not confirmed

31 T. Kutusha

4 K. Pillar

8 O. Buzungu

14 N. Mbarouk

16 A. Mwakitalu

20 H. Haji

22 V. Mayanga

29 G. Chota

32 O. Abdallah

33 R. Juma

60 B. Maranyingi

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · M. Makame

7 · R. Msuya

11 · I. Aziz

– · J. Muya

17 · W. Mwani

18 · S. Dondola

23 · M. Joseph

30 · H. Mussa

27 · J. Mbaga

36 · I. Kasongi

Our number · jkt tanzania winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market56%

Us50%

~~Market~~56%

We make JKT Tanzania a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JKT Tanzania v Mbeya City~~1.32 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 19 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~9 v 8

~~The market · JKT Tanzania win~~56% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · JKT Tanzania win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JKT Tanzania win	50%	56%	−6
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Mbeya City win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
Both teams to score	38%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	22%	−7
JKT Tanzania or draw	80%	84%	−4
JKT Tanzania clean sheet	48%	–	–
Mbeya City clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.2%

0123450 13.8 8.9 3.5 1 16.2 12.8 4.5 2 11.0 7.9 2.9 3 4.9 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JKT Tanzania down, Mbeya City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,275 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.5% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JKT Tanzania at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mbeya City away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for JKT Tanzania, 0.74 for Mbeya City. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JKT 1–0 MBE · MBE 2–2 JKT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 19 Aug

JKT TANZANIA

LLWWLW0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

MBEYA CITY

WWWDLL2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
6	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	8	+1	11
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
15	Pamba Jiji	8	−5	5
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5