JKT Tanzania v Kagera Sugar prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

JKT Tanzania 1–0 Kagera Sugar JKT TANZANIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said JKT Tanzania win~~54%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.224

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JKT Tanzania win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: JKT Tanzania 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
1′KICK-OFF JKT Tanzania v Kagera Sugar
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' JKT Tanzania win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′We said JKT Tanzania at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–41–17
45′HALF-TIME JKT Tanzania 0–0 Kagera Sugar
46′SECOND HALF JKT Tanzania 0–0 Kagera Sugar
48′We said JKT Tanzania at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–45–16
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was JKT Tanzania win 42%)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' JKT Tanzania
57′We said JKT Tanzania at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–15
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' JKT Tanzania win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Kagera Sugar
62′JKT Tanzania find the net on 62′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–12–2
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' JKT Tanzania 1–0 Kagera Sugar
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' JKT Tanzania win: 54% at kick-off, 86% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' JKT Tanzania win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 56%)
63′We said JKT Tanzania at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' JKT Tanzania win: 54% at kick-off, 87% now
72′We said JKT Tanzania at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
74′A goal for JKT Tanzania on 74′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′We said JKT Tanzania at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' JKT Tanzania 2–0 Kagera Sugar
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' JKT Tanzania win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
75′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
78′GOAL DISALLOWED · 78' JKT Tanzania
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' JKT Tanzania
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' JKT Tanzania
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Kagera Sugar
FTFULL TIME JKT Tanzania 1–0 Kagera Sugar
FTJKT Tanzania 1–0 Kagera Sugar · JKT Tanzania win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

JKT Tanzania are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JKT Tanzania 54%, draw 28%, Kagera Sugar 18%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on JKT Tanzania v Kagera SugarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

JKT Tanzania win54%

Draw28%

Kagera Sugar win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenueIsamuhyo Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JKT Tanzania

Kagera Sugar

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jkt tanzania winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market62%

Us54%

~~Market~~62%

We make JKT Tanzania a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JKT Tanzania v Kagera Sugar~~1.49 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 6~~5 v 15

~~The market · JKT Tanzania win~~62% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · JKT Tanzania win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JKT Tanzania win	54%	62%	−8
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Kagera Sugar win	18%	13%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	40%	40%	0
Over 1.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
JKT Tanzania or draw	82%	87%	−5
JKT Tanzania clean sheet	48%	–	–
Kagera Sugar clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 11.8 7.4 3.0 1 15.3 12.2 4.3 2 11.7 8.5 3.2 3 5.9 4.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JKT Tanzania down, Kagera Sugar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JKT Tanzania at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kagera Sugar away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for JKT Tanzania, 0.74 for Kagera Sugar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~JKT 2–0 KAG · KAG 0–0 JKT · KAG 1–1 JKT · JKT 1–1 KAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug

JKT TANZANIA

LWWLWW0–4 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

KAGERA SUGAR

LLLDWD2–6 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5