Geita Gold v Fountain Gate prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Geita GoldDrawFountain Gate

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Geita Gold 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Geita Gold are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Geita Gold 51%, draw 26%, Fountain Gate 22%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Geita Gold v Fountain GateBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Geita Gold win51%

Draw26%

Fountain Gate win22%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueGeita Gold Mine Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Geita Gold

Fountain Gate

10Days since last match10

Last match: 16 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · geita gold winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Geita Gold a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Geita Gold v Fountain Gate~~1.60 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 5~~13 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Geita Gold win	51%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Fountain Gate win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Geita Gold or draw	78%	–	–
Geita Gold clean sheet	39%	–	–
Fountain Gate clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.8 6.9 3.6 1 11.8 12.2 5.6 2 9.8 9.1 4.4 3 5.2 4.9 2.4 4 2.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Geita Gold down, Fountain Gate across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Geita Gold at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fountain Gate away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Geita Gold, 0.96 for Fountain Gate. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FOU 2–1 GEI · GEI 1–0 FOU · FOU 2–1 GEI · GEI 1–1 FOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug

GEITA GOLD

WDLLLL6–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3

FOUNTAIN GATE

LLLDLD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5