Geita Gold v Dodoma Jiji prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

Geita Gold 0–3 Dodoma Jiji GEITA GOLD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Geita Gold win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.900

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Geita Gold win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Geita Gold 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
1′KICK-OFF Geita Gold v Dodoma Jiji
4′A goal for Dodoma Jiji on 3′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–26–52
4′We said Geita Gold at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–26–52
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Geita Gold 0–1 Dodoma Jiji
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Geita Gold win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Dodoma Jiji win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Geita Gold win 22%)
7′Dodoma Jiji score on 7′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 8–14–79
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Geita Gold 0–2 Dodoma Jiji
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Geita Gold win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
8′We said Geita Gold at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–14–79
27′We said Geita Gold at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–12–84
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Dodoma Jiji
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Geita Gold
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Dodoma Jiji
45′HALF-TIME Geita Gold 0–2 Dodoma Jiji
45′SECOND HALF Geita Gold 0–2 Dodoma Jiji
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–2–98
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Geita Gold 0–3 Dodoma Jiji
48′Dodoma Jiji find the net on 48′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Geita Gold
90′0–3 at the end. Our 48% on Geita Gold misses, and the record keeps it. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Geita Gold 0–3 Dodoma Jiji
FTGeita Gold 0–3 Dodoma Jiji · Geita Gold win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Geita Gold are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Geita Gold 48%, draw 29%, Dodoma Jiji 23%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Geita Gold v Dodoma JijiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Geita Gold win48%

Draw29%

Dodoma Jiji win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueGeita Gold Mine Stadium

Line-ups

Geita Gold

Dodoma Jiji

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Geita Gold

Dodoma Jiji

8Days since last match7

Last match: 8 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Dodoma Jiji	7	0	11
12	Geita Gold	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Geita Gold

Formation not confirmed

48 F. Frank

31 Y. V. Mhilu

4 A. Shakur

5 H. Mohamed

7 A. Chirwa

12 K. Makasi

13 A. Kulandana

17 J. Mkele

25 M. Nassib

26 O. Hamis

28 A. Ali

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · C. Mhagama

14 · C. Tebandeke

20 · T. Muhenga

56 · I. Kuzoza

27 · V. Abubakar

9 · M. Shaban

10 · R. Ng'ondya

55 · A. Mwakyusa

39 · F. Ngoye

18 · I. Nakapi

Dodoma Jiji

Formation not confirmed

39 M. Mbisa

13 A. Kimweli

40 G. Kamagi

24 A. Banda

3 A. Bikoko

14 M. Kibuta

21 I. Kipagwile

53 F. Kayanda

27 N. Munganga

5 H. Beya

28 S. Khleffin

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · A. Salim

10 · D. Saliboko

20 · D. Mhilu

– · O. Kanyoro

– · I. Ngecha

26 · A. Nsata

– · Y. Kibamba

– · A. Shehame

61 · A. Ngalema

16 · B. Ngassa

Our number · geita gold winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 14:11 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Geita Gold a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Geita Gold v Dodoma Jiji~~1.36 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 18 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~12 v 6

~~The market · Geita Gold win~~47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Geita Gold win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Geita Gold win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	29%	31%	−2
Dodoma Jiji win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Both teams to score	42%	45%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Geita Gold or draw	77%	78%	−1
Geita Gold clean sheet	43%	–	–
Dodoma Jiji clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 12.0 8.9 4.1 1 14.3 12.9 5.3 2 10.0 8.3 3.5 3 4.6 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Geita Gold down, Dodoma Jiji across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Geita Gold at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dodoma Jiji away: 0.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Geita Gold, 0.85 for Dodoma Jiji. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DOD 0–1 GEI · GEI 2–2 DOD · GEI 2–0 DOD · DOD 1–0 GEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 18 Aug

GEITA GOLD

LWDLLL0–1 · 6–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–4

DODOMA JIJI

LLWWWD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
5	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
6	Dodoma Jiji	7	0	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	7	−3	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Kagera Sugar	7	−7	5
15	Pamba Jiji	7	−5	4
16	Fountain Gate	7	−8	4