Fountain Gate v Simba prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fountain GateDrawSimba

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Simba 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Simba are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fountain Gate 10%, draw 20%, Simba 71%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Fountain Gate v SimbaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fountain Gate win10%

Draw20%

Simba win71%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueKwaraa Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fountain Gate

Simba

12Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 21 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · simba winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Simba a 71% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–2.1, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fountain Gate v Simba~~0.61 – 2.10

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 24~~16 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fountain Gate win	10%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Simba win	71%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Fountain Gate or draw	29%	–	–
Fountain Gate clean sheet	13%	–	–
Simba clean sheet	55%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.3%

0123450 7.6 13.6 14.3 10.0 5.4 2.51 3.8 9.0 8.5 5.9 3.1 2 2.7 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fountain Gate down, Simba across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.12 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fountain Gate at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Simba away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.61 goals for Fountain Gate, 2.10 for Simba. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.12

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FOU 0–3 SIM · SIM 3–0 FOU · FOU 1–1 SIM · SIM 4–0 FOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 22 Aug

FOUNTAIN GATE

LLLDLD0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

SIMBA

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Namungo	9	−3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	−5	10
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	−8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5