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Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji
Fountain Gate
Pamba JijiLigi kuu Bara · FRI 16 OCT · Kwaraa Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Fountain Gate win at 39%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Fountain Gate was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji
- 6′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–61
- 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Fountain Gate 0–1 Pamba Jiji
- 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
- 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Pamba Jiji win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Fountain Gate win 16%)
- 7′Pamba Jiji find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–62
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
- 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Fountain Gate win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Pamba Jiji win 32%)
- 13′A goal for Fountain Gate on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–31–32
- 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Fountain Gate win 33%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
- 45′SECOND HALF Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
- 55′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–49–24
- 62′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
- 62′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 24–55–21
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
- 77′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
- 82′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
- 90′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Fountain Gate at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- FTFULL TIME Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
- FTFountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji · Fountain Gate win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFountain Gate are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Fountain Gate 39%, draw 29%, Pamba Jiji 32%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Fountain Gate win39%
Pamba Jiji win32%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueKwaraa Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Fountain GateMIN
Pamba JijiEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Fountain Gate
Pamba Jiji
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Fountain Gate
Pamba Jiji
Last match: 9 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara
Last match: 8 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Fountain Gate
Formation not confirmed
28 M. Kilusomo
33 P. Shaban
67 M. Balama
6 O. Awara
15 D. Mukombozi
9 C. Obasi
22 S. Said
56 A. Chilongola
10 Tiote
64 K. Kasuku
60 S. Mgunda
Coach · –
Substitutes
55 · H. Mey
19 · A. Mtambi
29 · J. Shiga
27 · H. Kindemile
18 · I. Parapanda
– · S. Chubi
– · J. Mwanyemba
53 · B. Godfrey
20 · A. Athuman
4 · D. Joram
Pamba Jiji
Formation not confirmed
37 D. Richard
30 Z. Mayombya
3 I. Abraham
12 A. Kadikilo
4 N. Okorocha
32 A. Said
43 A. Bausi
26 J. Ochieng
20 S. Oyugi Siwa
11 D. Mafie
54 H. Lutonja
Coach · –
Substitutes
18 · E. Johola
35 · Y. Abdulkarim
27 · N. Ndwangou
10 · S. Nahimana
17 · J. Nakibinge
40 · F. Kundo
6 · M. Samamba
42 · I. Diomande
36 · H. Kibailo
21 · S. Karabaka
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Fountain Gate
Formation not confirmed
28 M. Kilusomo
33 P. Shaban
67 M. Balama
6 O. Awara
15 D. Mukombozi
9 C. Obasi
22 S. Said
56 A. Chilongola
10 Tiote
64 K. Kasuku
60 S. Mgunda
Coach · –
Substitutes
55 · H. Mey
19 · A. Mtambi
29 · J. Shiga
27 · H. Kindemile
18 · I. Parapanda
– · S. Chubi
– · J. Mwanyemba
53 · B. Godfrey
20 · A. Athuman
4 · D. Joram
Pamba Jiji
Formation not confirmed
37 D. Richard
30 Z. Mayombya
3 I. Abraham
12 A. Kadikilo
4 N. Okorocha
32 A. Said
43 A. Bausi
26 J. Ochieng
20 S. Oyugi Siwa
11 D. Mafie
54 H. Lutonja
Coach · –
Substitutes
18 · E. Johola
35 · Y. Abdulkarim
27 · N. Ndwangou
10 · S. Nahimana
17 · J. Nakibinge
40 · F. Kundo
6 · M. Samamba
42 · I. Diomande
36 · H. Kibailo
21 · S. Karabaka
We make Fountain Gate a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fountain Gate win | 39% | 45% | −6 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 0 |
| Pamba Jiji win | 32% | 26% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Fountain Gate or draw | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Fountain Gate clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Pamba Jiji clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 18 Aug
FOUNTAIN GATE
PAMBA JIJI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | +15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 7 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | +6 | 17 |
| 4 | Mashujaa | 8 | −4 | 12 |
| 5 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Dodoma Jiji | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Polisi Tanzania | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Mbeya City | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | JKT Tanzania | 7 | −2 | 10 |
| 10 | Coastal Union | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 11 | Namungo | 8 | −4 | 9 |
| 12 | Geita Gold | 7 | −3 | 7 |
| 13 | Tabora United | 7 | −1 | 6 |
| 14 | Kagera Sugar | 7 | −7 | 5 |
| 15 | Pamba Jiji | 7 | −5 | 4 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 7 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Simba
Young Africans
Azam
Mashujaa
Singida Black Stars
Dodoma Jiji
Polisi Tanzania
Mbeya City
JKT Tanzania
Coastal Union
Namungo
Geita Gold
Tabora United
Kagera Sugar