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Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji

Fountain Gate
1–1Full time
Pamba Jiji

Ligi kuu Bara · FRI 16 OCT · Kwaraa Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59
Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji FOUNTAIN GATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Fountain Gate win39%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.758
The market’s Brier score0.768

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fountain Gate win at 39%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Fountain Gate was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–28–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji
  4. 6′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–61
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Fountain Gate 0–1 Pamba Jiji
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
  7. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Pamba Jiji win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Fountain Gate win 16%)
  8. 7′Pamba Jiji find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–22–62
  9. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
  10. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
  11. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Fountain Gate win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Pamba Jiji win 32%)
  12. 13′A goal for Fountain Gate on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–31–32
  13. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Fountain Gate win 33%)
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
  17. 55′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–49–24
  18. 62′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–55–21
  19. 62′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 24–55–21
  20. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  21. 77′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
  22. 82′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–8
  23. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Fountain Gate win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  24. 90′We said Fountain Gate at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  25. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Fountain Gate at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  26. FTFULL TIME Fountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji
  27. FTFountain Gate 1–1 Pamba Jiji · Fountain Gate win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fountain Gate are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fountain Gate 39%, draw 29%, Pamba Jiji 32%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Fountain Gate v Pamba JijiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Fountain Gate win39%
Draw29%
Pamba Jiji win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKwaraa Stadium

Line-ups

Fountain Gate

Pamba Jiji

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fountain Gate

Pamba Jiji

7Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 8 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
15Pamba Jiji7−54
16Fountain Gate7−84

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fountain Gate

Formation not confirmed

28 M. Kilusomo

33 P. Shaban

67 M. Balama

6 O. Awara

15 D. Mukombozi

9 C. Obasi

22 S. Said

56 A. Chilongola

10 Tiote

64 K. Kasuku

60 S. Mgunda

Coach · –

Substitutes

55 · H. Mey

19 · A. Mtambi

29 · J. Shiga

27 · H. Kindemile

18 · I. Parapanda

– · S. Chubi

– · J. Mwanyemba

53 · B. Godfrey

20 · A. Athuman

4 · D. Joram

Pamba Jiji

Formation not confirmed

37 D. Richard

30 Z. Mayombya

3 I. Abraham

12 A. Kadikilo

4 N. Okorocha

32 A. Said

43 A. Bausi

26 J. Ochieng

20 S. Oyugi Siwa

11 D. Mafie

54 H. Lutonja

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · E. Johola

35 · Y. Abdulkarim

27 · N. Ndwangou

10 · S. Nahimana

17 · J. Nakibinge

40 · F. Kundo

6 · M. Samamba

42 · I. Diomande

36 · H. Kibailo

21 · S. Karabaka

Our number · fountain gate winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 11:40 · locked at kick-off
39% The market45%
Us39%
Market45%

We make Fountain Gate a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fountain Gate v Pamba Jiji1.24 – 1.11
Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 18 AugW1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5
Table places · points 4 v 416 v 15
The market · Fountain Gate win45% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 10 OCT 03:5916 OCT 13:30
Our probability · Fountain Gate win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fountain Gate win39%45%−6
Draw29%29%0
Pamba Jiji win32%26%+6
Over 2.5 goals41%44%−3
Both teams to score47%50%−3
Over 1.5 goals68%69%−1
Over 3.5 goals21%24%−3
Fountain Gate or draw68%74%−6
Fountain Gate clean sheet34%––
Pamba Jiji clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 10.5 10.1 5.9 2.2 1 11.4 13.4 7.1 2.7 2 7.3 7.9 4.4 3 3.1 3.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fountain Gate down, Pamba Jiji across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsFOU 1–2 PAM · PAM 1–0 FOU · PAM 1–1 FOU · FOU 1–3 PAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 18 Aug

FOUNTAIN GATE

WLLLDL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

PAMBA JIJI

LLLLLW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 4–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Simba8+1524
2Young Africans7+1318
3Azam8+617
4Mashujaa8−412
5Singida Black Stars8+311
6Dodoma Jiji7011
7Polisi Tanzania7+110
8Mbeya City7010
9JKT Tanzania7−210
10Coastal Union8−410
11Namungo8−49
12Geita Gold7−37
13Tabora United7−16
14Kagera Sugar7−75
15Pamba Jiji7−54
16Fountain Gate7−84

The competition's standings before kick-off.