Home › Football › Ligi kuu Bara › Fountain Gate v JKT Tanzania

Fountain Gate v JKT Tanzania

Fountain Gate

1–2Full time

JKT Tanzania

Ligi kuu Bara · FRI 9 OCT · Kwaraa Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 14:32

Fountain Gate 1–2 JKT Tanzania FOUNTAIN GATE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fountain Gate win~~36%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.662

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fountain Gate win36%

Draw30%

JKT Tanzania win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Kwaraa Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fountain Gate

Formation not confirmed

18 I. Parapanda

29 J. Shiga

67 M. Balama

6 O. Awara

15 D. Mukombozi

9 C. Obasi

22 S. Said

56 A. Chilongola

20 A. Athuman

64 K. Kasuku

60 S. Mgunda

Coach · –

JKT Tanzania

Formation not confirmed

28 R. Chalamanda

41 P. Mussa

19 M. Otaro

22 K. Kombo

35 S. Chubi

31 A. Machezo

17 S. Bajana

4 H. Kapalata

11 I. Mhesa

– M. Bakari

45 S. Mkopi

Coach · –

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fountain Gate

Formation not confirmed

18 I. Parapanda

29 J. Shiga

67 M. Balama

6 O. Awara

15 D. Mukombozi

9 C. Obasi

22 S. Said

56 A. Chilongola

20 A. Athuman

64 K. Kasuku

60 S. Mgunda

Coach · –

JKT Tanzania

Formation not confirmed

28 R. Chalamanda

41 P. Mussa

19 M. Otaro

22 K. Kombo

35 S. Chubi

31 A. Machezo

17 S. Bajana

4 H. Kapalata

11 I. Mhesa

– M. Bakari

45 S. Mkopi

Coach · –

Our number · fountain gate winPublished 9 Oct 12:02

36% The market32%

Us36%

~~Market~~32%

We make Fountain Gate a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fountain gate win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fountain Gate win	36%	32%	+4
Draw	30%	31%	−1
JKT Tanzania win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	21%	−3
Fountain Gate or draw	66%	63%	+3
Fountain Gate clean sheet	35%	–	–
JKT Tanzania clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.3 11.6 6.5 2.3 1 12.1 13.7 7.0 2.5 2 7.0 7.3 3.8 3 2.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fountain Gate down, JKT Tanzania across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,265 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fountain Gate at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). JKT Tanzania away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Fountain Gate, 1.06 for JKT Tanzania. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~JKT 2–2 FOU · FOU 0–2 JKT · JKT 3–1 FOU · FOU 0–1 JKT

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara

FOUNTAIN GATE

LWLLLD0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

JKT TANZANIA

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Young Africans	6	+14	18
2	Simba	6	+9	18
3	Azam	7	+4	14
4	Mashujaa	7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	6	+4	10
6	Mbeya City	6	+2	10
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Dodoma Jiji	6	0	10
9	Namungo	8	−4	9
10	Geita Gold	7	−3	7
11	JKT Tanzania	6	−3	7
12	Coastal Union	6	−3	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	7	−5	4
15	Fountain Gate	6	−7	4
16	Kagera Sugar	6	−9	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Fountain Gate

JKT Tanzania

Match statistics

Line-ups

Fountain Gate

JKT Tanzania

Head to head

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara

The table