Coastal Union v Singida Black Stars prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

Coastal Union 1–0 Singida Black Stars SINGIDA BLACK STARS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Singida Black Stars win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.653

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.649

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Coastal Union win34%

Draw28%

Singida Black Stars win38%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:00

VenueMkwakwani Stadium

Line-ups

Coastal Union

Singida Black Stars

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Coastal Union

Singida Black Stars

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Singida Black Stars	7	+4	11
12	Coastal Union	7	−5	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Coastal Union

Formation not confirmed

18 C. Ramadhani

4 A. Laurent

5 A. Msangi

24 S. Chuku

26 A. Rasimos

7 I. S. Manyerere

13 K. Gradi

16 G. Manyasi

69 N. Mussa

9 M. Maulid

14 M. Mwamita

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Issa

3 · S. Bulugu

12 · R. Hussein

20 · R. Mashaka

32 · K. Brayan

34 · S. Mwanza

37 · Said Juma

61 · J. Bwazza

19 · G. Komba

27 · J. George

Singida Black Stars

Formation not confirmed

16 Y. Amosi

13 A. Zakaria

21 C. Ande

33 M. Hassan

60 H. Kazi

6 E. Keyekeh

17 S. Sacko

22 S. Khamis

24 D. Kambou

9 M. Tegisi

11 J. Mboma Kinda

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · M. Mnata

43 · I. Athuman

5 · I. Imoro

37 · A. Assa

14 · D. Henry

18 · J. Mwashinga

27 · D. Kaseke

39 · Y. Adam

45 · A. Pipino

19 · A. Simchimba

Our number · singida black stars winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 10 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Singida Black Stars a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · singida black stars win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coastal Union win	34%	35%	0
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Singida Black Stars win	38%	39%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	54%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Coastal Union or draw	62%	61%	+1
Coastal Union clean sheet	28%	–	–
Singida Black Stars clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.9 9.9 6.8 3.0 1 9.3 13.1 8.0 3.5 2 6.0 7.6 4.9 2.2 3 2.5 3.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coastal Union down, Singida Black Stars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coastal Union at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Singida Black Stars away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Coastal Union, 1.30 for Singida Black Stars. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~COA 2–1 SIN · SIN 1–0 COA · COA 2–1 SIN · SIN 0–0 COA

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara

COASTAL UNION

LDLWWL1–4 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

SINGIDA BLACK STARS

DLWWLD1–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	7	+10	21
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Mashujaa	7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	7	+4	11
6	Dodoma Jiji	7	0	11
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Mbeya City	7	0	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	−2	10
10	Namungo	8	−4	9
11	Geita Gold	7	−3	7
12	Coastal Union	7	−5	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Kagera Sugar	7	−7	5
15	Pamba Jiji	7	−5	4
16	Fountain Gate	7	−8	4