Coastal Union v Kagera Sugar prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Coastal UnionDrawKagera Sugar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Coastal Union 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coastal Union are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coastal Union 53%, draw 29%, Kagera Sugar 19%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Coastal Union v Kagera SugarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Coastal Union win53%

Draw29%

Kagera Sugar win19%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMkwakwani Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coastal Union

Kagera Sugar

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coastal union winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Coastal Union a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coastal Union v Kagera Sugar~~1.42 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 27 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~10 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coastal Union win	53%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Kagera Sugar win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Coastal Union or draw	81%	–	–
Coastal Union clean sheet	49%	–	–
Kagera Sugar clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.9%

0123450 12.7 7.9 3.1 1 15.9 12.4 4.3 2 11.6 8.3 3.0 3 5.6 4.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coastal Union down, Kagera Sugar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coastal Union at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kagera Sugar away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Coastal Union, 0.73 for Kagera Sugar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAG 2–1 COA · COA 1–0 KAG · KAG 1–2 COA · COA 1–0 KAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 27 Aug

COASTAL UNION

LWWLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

KAGERA SUGAR

LLDWDL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5