Coastal Union v Dodoma Jiji prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Coastal UnionDrawDodoma Jiji

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Coastal Union 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coastal Union are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coastal Union 46%, draw 31%, Dodoma Jiji 23%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Coastal Union v Dodoma JijiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Coastal Union win46%

Draw31%

Dodoma Jiji win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMkwakwani Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coastal Union

Dodoma Jiji

7Days since last match15

Last match: 24 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

Last match: 16 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
11	Coastal Union	9	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coastal union winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Coastal Union a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coastal Union v Dodoma Jiji~~1.21 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coastal Union win	46%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Dodoma Jiji win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Coastal Union or draw	77%	–	–
Coastal Union clean sheet	47%	–	–
Dodoma Jiji clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.0%

0123450 14.9 10.0 4.1 1 16.0 13.3 4.8 2 10.1 7.6 2.9 3 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coastal Union down, Dodoma Jiji across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coastal Union at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dodoma Jiji away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Coastal Union, 0.76 for Dodoma Jiji. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COA 3–1 DOD · DOD 2–0 COA · DOD 0–0 COA · COA 2–0 DOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 25 Aug

COASTAL UNION

LWWLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

DODOMA JIJI

LWWWDW0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Namungo	9	−3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	−5	10
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	−8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5