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Coastal Union v Azam

Coastal Union

0–2Full time

Azam

Ligi kuu Bara · FRI 9 OCT · Mkwakwani Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Coastal Union 0–2 Azam AZAM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Azam win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.410

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Coastal Union win22%

Draw30%

Azam win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Mkwakwani Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Coastal Union

Formation not confirmed

18 C. Ramadhani

26 A. Rasimos

2 A. William

5 A. Msangi

4 A. Laurent

16 G. Manyasi

36 M. Andrea

59 A. Arafat

25 S. Kichuya

69 N. Mussa

9 M. Maulid

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · A. Issa

46 · S. Bulugu

12 · S. Chuku

34 · S. Mwanza

55 · E. Mwalugali

8 · K. Gradi

14 · M. Mwamita

33 · I. S. Manyerere

51 · J. Bwazza

88 · J. Tiber

Azam

Formation not confirmed

28 A. Manula

5 L. Mwaikenda

13 T. Abdulrafiu

2 I. Fasika

24 Y. D. Fuentes Mendoza

23 H. Mkami

19 G. Sillah

4 D. Makoma

20 H. Molia

11 Naldo

6 F. Salum

Coach · Florent Ibenge

Substitutes

12 · P. Msindo

30 · H. Stanic

52 · A. Kibeku

16 · H. Athuman

74 · H. Mbaruku

21 · Y. Zayd

27 · H. Mubiru

9 · A. Suleiman

22 · K. Zunon

29 · N. Saadun

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Coastal Union

Formation not confirmed

18 C. Ramadhani

26 A. Rasimos

2 A. William

5 A. Msangi

4 A. Laurent

16 G. Manyasi

36 M. Andrea

59 A. Arafat

25 S. Kichuya

69 N. Mussa

9 M. Maulid

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · A. Issa

46 · S. Bulugu

12 · S. Chuku

34 · S. Mwanza

55 · E. Mwalugali

8 · K. Gradi

14 · M. Mwamita

33 · I. S. Manyerere

51 · J. Bwazza

88 · J. Tiber

Azam

Formation not confirmed

28 A. Manula

5 L. Mwaikenda

13 T. Abdulrafiu

2 I. Fasika

24 Y. D. Fuentes Mendoza

23 H. Mkami

19 G. Sillah

4 D. Makoma

20 H. Molia

11 Naldo

6 F. Salum

Coach · Florent Ibenge

Substitutes

12 · P. Msindo

30 · H. Stanic

52 · A. Kibeku

16 · H. Athuman

74 · H. Mbaruku

21 · Y. Zayd

27 · H. Mubiru

9 · A. Suleiman

22 · K. Zunon

29 · N. Saadun

Our number · azam winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Azam a 48% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coastal Union win	22%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Azam win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Coastal Union or draw	52%	–	–
Coastal Union clean sheet	28%	–	–
Azam clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.6%

0123450 13.3 15.6 10.4 4.6 1 9.3 12.9 8.0 3.5 2 3.9 4.9 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coastal Union down, Azam across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,265 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coastal Union at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Azam away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Coastal Union, 1.30 for Azam. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COA 0–2 AZA · AZA 3–0 COA · COA 0–0 AZA · AZA 1–0 COA

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara

COASTAL UNION

LLDLWW0–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

AZAM

WWDWWL2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Young Africans	6	+14	18
2	Simba	6	+9	18
3	Azam	7	+4	14
4	Mashujaa	7	+1	12
5	Singida Black Stars	6	+4	10
6	Mbeya City	6	+2	10
7	Polisi Tanzania	7	+1	10
8	Dodoma Jiji	6	0	10
9	Namungo	8	−4	9
10	Geita Gold	7	−3	7
11	JKT Tanzania	6	−3	7
12	Coastal Union	6	−3	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	7	−5	4
15	Fountain Gate	6	−7	4
16	Kagera Sugar	6	−9	2