Azam v Mbeya City prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AzamDrawMbeya City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Azam 75%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Azam are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Azam 75%, draw 18%, Mbeya City 7%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Azam v Mbeya CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Azam win75%

Draw18%

Mbeya City win7%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAzam Complex Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Azam

Mbeya City

4Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Azam	8	+6	17
10	Mbeya City	8	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · azam winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Azam a 75% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.5, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Azam v Mbeya City~~2.14 – 0.49

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~3 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Azam win	75%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Mbeya City win	7%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Azam or draw	93%	–	–
Azam clean sheet	61%	–	–
Mbeya City clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 16.1%

0123450 8.0 3.3 1 15.0 8.0 2 16.1 7.8 3 11.4 5.5 4 6.3 3.0 5 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Azam down, Mbeya City across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,280 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Azam at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mbeya City away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Azam, 0.49 for Mbeya City. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MBE 0–0 AZA · AZA 2–0 MBE · AZA 6–1 MBE · MBE 0–1 AZA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 23 Aug

AZAM

WDWWLW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

MBEYA CITY

WWDLLL2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	8	+13	19
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	JKT Tanzania	9	0	16
5	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Namungo	9	−3	12
8	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
9	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
10	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
11	Coastal Union	9	−5	10
12	Tabora United	8	−1	7
13	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	9	−8	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5