Azam v Mashujaa prediction · Ligi kuu Bara

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Azam are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Azam 70%, draw 22%, Mashujaa 8%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Azam v MashujaaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Azam win70%

Draw22%

Mashujaa win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAzam Complex Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Azam

Mashujaa

8Days since last match11

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · Ligi kuu Bara

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Azam	8	+6	17
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · azam winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

70% The market–

Us70%

We make Azam a 70% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.5, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Azam v Mashujaa~~1.85 – 0.46

~~Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~3 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Azam win	70%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Mashujaa win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Azam or draw	92%	–	–
Azam clean sheet	63%	–	–
Mashujaa clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.8%

0123450 10.7 4.2 1 17.8 8.8 2 16.7 7.6 3 10.3 4.7 4 4.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Azam down, Mashujaa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,277 Ligi kuu Bara matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligi kuu Bara matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.17 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Azam at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mashujaa away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Azam, 0.46 for Mashujaa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.17

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~0 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AZA 2–0 MAS · MAS 0–0 AZA · AZA 2–0 MAS · MAS 0–0 AZA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Ligi kuu Bara this season · since 23 Aug

AZAM

WDWWLW2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

MASHUJAA

LWLWWL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Simba	8	+15	24
2	Young Africans	7	+13	18
3	Azam	8	+6	17
4	Dodoma Jiji	8	+3	14
5	JKT Tanzania	8	−1	13
6	Polisi Tanzania	9	+1	12
7	Mashujaa	8	−4	12
8	Singida Black Stars	8	+3	11
9	Mbeya City	8	−1	10
10	Coastal Union	8	−4	10
11	Namungo	8	−4	9
12	Geita Gold	8	−6	7
13	Tabora United	7	−1	6
14	Pamba Jiji	9	−5	6
15	Kagera Sugar	8	−7	6
16	Fountain Gate	8	−8	5