Sardor Tursunzoda v Ravshan prediction · Vysshaya Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sardor TursunzodaDrawRavshan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ravshan 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ravshan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sardor Tursunzoda 27%, draw 26%, Ravshan 47%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sardor Tursunzoda v RavshanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sardor Tursunzoda win27%

Draw26%

Ravshan win47%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sardor Tursunzoda

Ravshan

18Days since last match10

Last match: 12 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 20 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ravshan winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Ravshan a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sardor Tursunzoda v Ravshan~~1.12 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 28 June~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 26~~11 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sardor Tursunzoda win	27%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Ravshan win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Sardor Tursunzoda or draw	53%	–	–
Sardor Tursunzoda clean sheet	22%	–	–
Ravshan clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.7 10.4 8.2 4.3 1 7.5 12.1 8.9 4.6 2 4.4 6.6 5.0 2.6 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sardor Tursunzoda down, Ravshan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 727 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sardor Tursunzoda at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ravshan away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Sardor Tursunzoda, 1.55 for Ravshan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RAV 3–1 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 28 June

SARDOR TURSUNZODA

LWDDLD0–1 · 4–2 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

RAVSHAN

LDLWDW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25
8	Khatlon	18	+2	23
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	20	−20	16
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6