Sardor Tursunzoda v Istaravshan prediction · Vysshaya Liga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Sardor Tursunzoda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sardor Tursunzoda 53%, draw 23%, Istaravshan 24%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sardor Tursunzoda v IstaravshanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Sardor Tursunzoda win53%

Draw23%

Istaravshan win24%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 20

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sardor Tursunzoda

Istaravshan

15Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 20 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6

Match statistics

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sardor tursunzoda winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Sardor Tursunzoda a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sardor Tursunzoda v Istaravshan~~1.86 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 28 June~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sardor Tursunzoda win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Istaravshan win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Sardor Tursunzoda or draw	76%	–	–
Sardor Tursunzoda clean sheet	32%	–	–
Istaravshan clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.7 5.6 3.4 1 8.9 10.7 6.0 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.3 4 2.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sardor Tursunzoda down, Istaravshan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 728 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sardor Tursunzoda at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Istaravshan away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Sardor Tursunzoda, 1.16 for Istaravshan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IST 1–1 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 28 June

SARDOR TURSUNZODA

LWDDLD0–1 · 4–2 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

ISTARAVSHAN

LDLLLL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	19	+14	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Khatlon	19	+5	26
8	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	20	−20	16
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6