Ravshan v Khujand prediction · Vysshaya Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RavshanDrawKhujand

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ravshan 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ravshan just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ravshan 37%, draw 33%, Khujand 30%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Ravshan v KhujandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ravshan win37%

Draw33%

Khujand win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 20

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ravshan

Khujand

7Days since last match18

Last match: 20 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ravshan winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Ravshan a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ravshan v Khujand~~1.01 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 26 v 27~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ravshan win	37%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Khujand win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Ravshan or draw	70%	–	–
Ravshan clean sheet	42%	–	–
Khujand clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 12.8 5.8 1 14.8 13.4 5.8 2 7.7 6.6 2.9 3 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ravshan down, Khujand across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 727 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ravshan at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Khujand away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Ravshan, 0.88 for Khujand. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KHU 4–1 RAV · KHU 1–2 RAV · RAV 4–1 KHU · RAV 3–2 KHU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June

RAVSHAN

LDLWDW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

KHUJAND

WDWDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25
8	Khatlon	18	+2	23
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	20	−20	16
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6