Ravshan v Khosilot Farkhor prediction · Vysshaya Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Ravshan 1–1 Khosilot Farkhor RAVSHAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ravshan win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ravshan win at 43%.
7′Much as we predicted: Ravshan was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
10′Much as we predicted: Ravshan was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
45′A goal for Khosilot Farkhor on 39′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–66
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ravshan win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ravshan win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Khosilot Farkhor win 28%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ravshan win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Khosilot Farkhor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Ravshan win 10%)
45′HALF-TIME Ravshan 0–1 Khosilot Farkhor
50′SECOND HALF Ravshan 0–1 Khosilot Farkhor
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Ravshan 0–1 Khosilot Farkhor
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Ravshan win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Khosilot Farkhor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Ravshan win 10%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Ravshan win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Khosilot Farkhor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Ravshan win 10%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ravshan win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Khosilot Farkhor win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Ravshan win 10%)
75′⚽ GOAL · 39' Ravshan 0–1 Khosilot Farkhor
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Khosilot Farkhor
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ravshan 0–1 Khosilot Farkhor
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Ravshan 1–1 Khosilot Farkhor
FTFULL TIME Ravshan 1–1 Khosilot Farkhor
FTRavshan 1–1 Khosilot Farkhor · Ravshan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ravshan win43%

Draw26%

Khosilot Farkhor win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ravshan

Khosilot Farkhor

21Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Khosilot Farkhor	17	+17	34
7	Ravshan	17	+4	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ravshan winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Ravshan a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ravshan win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Ravshan or draw	69%	–	–
Ravshan clean sheet	31%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.7 8.3 5.1 2.1 1 10.2 12.2 7.1 2.9 2 7.5 8.6 5.1 2.1 3 3.7 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ravshan down, Khosilot Farkhor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 722 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.6% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ravshan at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Khosilot Farkhor away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Ravshan, 1.19 for Khosilot Farkhor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~KHO 1–0 RAV · KHO 2–2 RAV · RAV 2–1 KHO · KHO 0–1 RAV

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga

RAVSHAN

LDLDLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0

KHOSILOT FARKHOR

WWDWLW3–2 · 5–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	17	+14	37
2	Khosilot Farkhor	17	+17	34
3	Istiqlol	16	+15	34
4	Khujand	17	+5	27
5	CSKA Pomir	16	+1	27
6	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
7	Ravshan	17	+4	22
8	Khatlon	17	0	20
9	Eskhata	17	−10	19
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	16	−8	11
12	Istaravshan	17	−19	6