Parvoz v Barki Tajik prediction · Vysshaya Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Parvoz 0–0 Barki Tajik BARKI TAJIK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Barki Tajik win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.835

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barki Tajik are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parvoz 29%, draw 26%, Barki Tajik 45%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Parvoz v Barki TajikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Parvoz win29%

Draw26%

Barki Tajik win45%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 20

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parvoz

Barki Tajik

6Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
10	Parvoz	19	−20	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · barki tajik winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Barki Tajik a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parvoz v Barki Tajik~~1.17 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 24~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Barki Tajik win

Published at 44%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parvoz win	29%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Barki Tajik win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Parvoz or draw	55%	–	–
Parvoz clean sheet	23%	–	–
Barki Tajik clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.6 10.2 7.8 4.0 1 7.9 12.1 8.8 4.5 2 4.7 6.9 5.1 2.6 3 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Parvoz down, Barki Tajik across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 726 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.9% of games this season, across 105 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parvoz at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Barki Tajik away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Parvoz, 1.51 for Barki Tajik. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June

PARVOZ

LLWLLL0–3 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

BARKI TAJIK

DDDWWL2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
8	Khatlon	18	+2	23
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	19	−20	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6