Khujand v Khosilot Farkhor prediction · Vysshaya Liga

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Khujand are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khujand 42%, draw 29%, Khosilot Farkhor 30%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Khujand v Khosilot FarkhorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

Khujand win42%

Draw29%

Khosilot Farkhor win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khujand

Khosilot Farkhor

7Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
5	Khujand	17	+5	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khujand winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Khujand a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khujand v Khosilot Farkhor~~1.28 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 27 v 35~~5 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khujand win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Khujand or draw	70%	–	–
Khujand clean sheet	36%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.8 9.9 5.3 1 12.4 13.1 6.6 2.3 2 8.1 8.1 4.2 3 3.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khujand down, Khosilot Farkhor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings since 2023, in every competition we cover: 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khujand at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Khosilot Farkhor away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Khujand, 1.03 for Khosilot Farkhor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KHO 2–0 KHU · KHU 2–1 KHO · KHO 3–1 KHU · KHO 0–1 KHU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June

KHUJAND

WDWDWW1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

KHOSILOT FARKHOR

WDWLWD5–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
7	Ravshan	18	+4	23
8	Eskhata	18	−10	20
9	Khatlon	17	0	20
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	18	−21	6