Khosilot Farkhor v Khatlon prediction · Vysshaya Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Khosilot Farkhor 0–3 Khatlon KHOSILOT FARKHOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khosilot Farkhor win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Khosilot Farkhor win at 44%.
26′Much as we predicted: Khosilot Farkhor was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
59′We said Khosilot Farkhor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–47–23
59′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–47–23
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+14' Khosilot Farkhor win: 44% at kick-off, 30% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+14' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Khosilot Farkhor win 37%)
60′We said Khosilot Farkhor at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Khosilot Farkhor 0–1 Khatlon
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+20' Khosilot Farkhor win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+20' Khatlon win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 53%)
FTFULL TIME Khosilot Farkhor 0–1 Khatlon
FTKhosilot Farkhor 0–3 Khatlon · Khosilot Farkhor win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khosilot Farkhor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khosilot Farkhor 44%, draw 25%, Khatlon 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Khosilot Farkhor v KhatlonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Khosilot Farkhor win44%

Draw25%

Khatlon win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 20

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khosilot Farkhor

Khatlon

13Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
8	Khatlon	18	+2	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khosilot farkhor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Khosilot Farkhor a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khosilot Farkhor v Khatlon~~1.57 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 1 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 23~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khosilot Farkhor win	44%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Khatlon win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor or draw	69%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor clean sheet	29%	–	–
Khatlon clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.6 7.2 4.8 2.0 1 8.9 11.8 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 8.8 5.5 2.4 3 3.8 4.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khosilot Farkhor down, Khatlon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 727 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khosilot Farkhor at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Khatlon away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Khosilot Farkhor, 1.26 for Khatlon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KHA 2–2 KHO · KHA 1–0 KHO · KHO 1–1 KHA · KHO 1–2 KHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 1 Aug

KHOSILOT FARKHOR

WDWLWD5–2 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

KHATLON

WDDDLW4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25
8	Khatlon	18	+2	23
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	20	−20	16
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6