Khatlon v Parvoz prediction · Vysshaya Liga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Khatlon 3–1 Parvoz KHATLON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khatlon win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khatlon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khatlon 59%, draw 23%, Parvoz 18%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Khatlon v ParvozBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Khatlon win59%

Draw23%

Parvoz win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khatlon

Parvoz

30Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Sept · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Khatlon	17	0	20
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khatlon winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Khatlon a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khatlon v Parvoz~~1.86 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khatlon win	59%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Parvoz win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Khatlon or draw	82%	–	–
Khatlon clean sheet	41%	–	–
Parvoz clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.1 5.7 2.7 1 11.6 10.7 4.7 2 10.7 9.3 4.2 3 6.7 5.7 2.6 4 3.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khatlon down, Parvoz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khatlon at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Parvoz away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Khatlon, 0.90 for Parvoz. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAR 1–1 KHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June

KHATLON

DWDDDL2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1

PARVOZ

LLLWLL2–4 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
7	Ravshan	18	+4	23
8	Eskhata	18	−10	20
9	Khatlon	17	0	20
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	18	−21	6