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Istiqlol v Khatlon

Istiqlol

–Postponed

Khatlon

Vysshaya Liga · SAT 10 OCT

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Istiqlol win67%

Draw21%

Khatlon win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · istiqlol winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Istiqlol a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Istiqlol win	67%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Khatlon win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Istiqlol or draw	87%	–	–
Istiqlol clean sheet	50%	–	–
Khatlon clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 7.5 4.7 1 13.4 9.5 3.4 2 13.1 9.0 3.2 3 8.7 5.9 2.1 4 4.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Istiqlol down, Khatlon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 720 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.4% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 2.31 goals a meeting; 4 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Istiqlol at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Khatlon away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Istiqlol, 0.70 for Khatlon. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.31

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 13

~~Both scored~~3 of 13

~~Last meetings~~KHA 0–2 IST · KHA 1–1 IST · IST 0–0 KHA · KHA 0–1 IST

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga

ISTIQLOL

WLWWWL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

KHATLON

DWDDDL2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khosilot Farkhor	17	+17	34
2	Istiqlol	16	+15	34
3	Regar-TadAZ	16	+12	34
4	Khujand	17	+5	27
5	Barki Tajik	16	+1	24
6	CSKA Pomir	15	0	24
7	Ravshan	17	+4	22
8	Khatlon	17	0	20
9	Eskhata	17	−10	19
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	16	−8	11
12	Istaravshan	16	−18	6