Istiqlol v Eskhata prediction · Vysshaya Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

IstiqlolDrawEskhata

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Istiqlol 76%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Istiqlol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Istiqlol 76%, draw 15%, Eskhata 9%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Istiqlol v EskhataBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Istiqlol win76%

Draw15%

Eskhata win9%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 20

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Istiqlol

Eskhata

5Days since last match16

Last match: 23 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 12 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

3Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · istiqlol winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Istiqlol a 76% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Istiqlol v Eskhata~~2.65 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 28 June~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 20~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Istiqlol win	76%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Eskhata win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Istiqlol or draw	91%	–	–
Istiqlol clean sheet	48%	–	–
Eskhata clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 3.9 2.5 1 9.0 6.9 2.6 2 11.6 8.4 3.2 3 10.0 7.2 2.7 4 6.8 4.7 5 3.8 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Istiqlol down, Eskhata across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 728 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.1% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Istiqlol at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Eskhata away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.65 goals for Istiqlol, 0.74 for Eskhata. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ESK 0–0 IST · IST 6–2 ESK · ESK 1–1 IST · ESK 0–3 IST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 28 June

ISTIQLOL

WLWWWL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

ESKHATA

LDDLWD2–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	19	+14	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Khatlon	19	+5	26
8	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	20	−20	16
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6