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Model 1.2

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Istaravshan v Ravshan

Istaravshan
0–1Full time
Ravshan

Vysshaya Liga · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 03:22
Istaravshan 0–1 Ravshan RAVSHAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Ravshan win55%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.305

Corrected on 21 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–0; the score is now 0–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 5 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ravshan win at 55%.
  2. 52′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 17–44–39
  3. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 17–46–37
  4. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Ravshan win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
  5. 60′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 16–50–34
  6. 66′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 14–56–29
  7. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Ravshan win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
  8. 72′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 12–64–24
  9. 77′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 10–72–19
  10. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Ravshan win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  11. 81′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 7–79–14
  12. 85′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–86–9
  13. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Ravshan win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  14. 91′We said Ravshan at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–93–4
  15. FTFULL TIME Istaravshan 0–0 Ravshan
  16. FTIstaravshan 0–1 Ravshan · Ravshan win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ravshan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Istaravshan 20%, draw 25%, Ravshan 55%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Istaravshan v RavshanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Istaravshan win20%
Draw25%
Ravshan win55%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Istaravshan

Ravshan

10Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Ravshan18+423
12Istaravshan18−216

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ravshan winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market–
Us55%

We make Ravshan a 55% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Istaravshan v Ravshan0.88 – 1.66
Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 31 JulyW0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 6 v 2312 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Istaravshan win20%––
Draw25%––
Ravshan win55%––
Over 2.5 goals46%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals25%––
Istaravshan or draw45%––
Istaravshan clean sheet20%––
Ravshan clean sheet42%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.8%
0123450 8.7 12.8 10.7 6.0 2.6 1 6.8 11.6 9.1 5.1 2.2 2 3.2 5.0 4.0 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Istaravshan down, Ravshan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsRAV 4–1 IST · IST 1–3 RAV · RAV 1–1 IST · IST 1–3 RAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 31 July

ISTARAVSHAN

LLDLLL2–5 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 0–1

RAVSHAN

DLDLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Regar-TadAZ18+1640
2Istiqlol17+1737
3Khosilot Farkhor18+1735
4CSKA Pomir17−127
5Khujand17+527
6Barki Tajik17−124
7Ravshan18+423
8Khatlon18+223
9Eskhata18−1020
10Parvoz19−2015
11Sardor Tursunzoda17−812
12Istaravshan18−216

The competition's standings before kick-off.