Eskhata v Regar-TadAZ prediction · Vysshaya Liga

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Regar-TadAZ are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eskhata 27%, draw 28%, Regar-TadAZ 45%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Eskhata v Regar-TadAZBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 03:01 · postponed, not graded

Eskhata win27%

Draw28%

Regar-TadAZ win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eskhata

Regar-TadAZ

5Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	16	40
8	Eskhata	18	-10	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · regar-tadaz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 03:01 · postponed, not graded

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Regar-TadAZ a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eskhata v Regar-TadAZ~~1.02 – 1.39

~~Last six in Vysshaya Liga~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 40~~8 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · regar-tadaz win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eskhata win	27%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Regar-TadAZ win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Eskhata or draw	55%	–	–
Eskhata clean sheet	26%	–	–
Regar-TadAZ clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.8 12.2 8.6 4.1 1 8.9 12.8 8.5 4.0 2 4.7 6.3 4.3 2.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eskhata down, Regar-TadAZ across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eskhata at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Regar-TadAZ away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Eskhata, 1.39 for Regar-TadAZ. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REG 2–2 ESK · ESK 3–0 REG · REG 1–1 ESK · ESK 1–0 REG

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga

ESKHATA

LDDLWD2–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

REGAR-TADAZ

WWLDWW1–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	-1	27
5	Khujand	17	5	27
6	Barki Tajik	17	-1	24
7	Ravshan	18	4	23
8	Eskhata	18	-10	20
9	Khatlon	17	0	20
10	Parvoz	18	-18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	-8	12
12	Istaravshan	18	-21	6