CSKA Pomir v Sardor Tursunzoda prediction · Vysshaya Liga

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

CSKA Pomir are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSKA Pomir 55%, draw 23%, Sardor Tursunzoda 22%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on CSKA Pomir v Sardor TursunzodaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

CSKA Pomir win55%

Draw23%

Sardor Tursunzoda win22%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSKA Pomir

Sardor Tursunzoda

6Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cska pomir winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · postponed, not graded

55% The market–

Us55%

We make CSKA Pomir a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Pomir v Sardor Tursunzoda~~1.85 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 26 June~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 12~~4 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cska pomir win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Pomir win	55%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Sardor Tursunzoda win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
CSKA Pomir or draw	78%	–	–
CSKA Pomir clean sheet	35%	–	–
Sardor Tursunzoda clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.2 5.7 3.2 1 9.9 10.8 5.6 2.0 2 9.2 9.4 5.0 3 5.7 5.8 3.0 4 2.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Pomir down, Sardor Tursunzoda across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

1 previous meeting since 2025, in every competition we cover: 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSKA Pomir at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sardor Tursunzoda away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for CSKA Pomir, 1.06 for Sardor Tursunzoda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAR 0–2 CSK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 26 June

CSKA POMIR

LDDWLW2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–0

SARDOR TURSUNZODA

LWDDLD0–1 · 4–2 · 3–3 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
7	Ravshan	18	+4	23
8	Eskhata	18	−10	20
9	Khatlon	17	0	20
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	18	−21	6