Barki Tajik v Khosilot Farkhor prediction · Vysshaya Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Barki TajikDrawKhosilot Farkhor

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Khosilot Farkhor 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khosilot Farkhor are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barki Tajik 33%, draw 26%, Khosilot Farkhor 41%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Barki Tajik v Khosilot FarkhorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Barki Tajik win33%

Draw26%

Khosilot Farkhor win41%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barki Tajik

Khosilot Farkhor

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 24 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
7	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khosilot farkhor winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Khosilot Farkhor a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barki Tajik v Khosilot Farkhor~~1.29 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 31 July~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 35~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barki Tajik win	33%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Barki Tajik or draw	59%	–	–
Barki Tajik clean sheet	24%	–	–
Khosilot Farkhor clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.2 9.1 6.8 3.3 1 8.0 12.2 8.4 4.1 2 5.4 7.5 5.4 2.6 3 2.4 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barki Tajik down, Khosilot Farkhor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 727 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.5% of games this season, across 106 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barki Tajik at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Khosilot Farkhor away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Barki Tajik, 1.46 for Khosilot Farkhor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KHO 2–1 BAR · BAR 0–1 KHO · KHO 0–3 BAR · BAR 1–1 KHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 31 July

BARKI TAJIK

DDWWLD1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

KHOSILOT FARKHOR

DWLWDL3–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Ravshan	19	+5	26
7	Barki Tajik	18	−1	25
8	Khatlon	18	+2	23
9	Eskhata	18	−10	20
10	Parvoz	20	−20	16
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	19	−22	6