Barki Tajik v Istiqlol prediction · Vysshaya Liga

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Istiqlol are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barki Tajik 14%, draw 22%, Istiqlol 64%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Barki Tajik v IstiqlolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Barki Tajik win14%

Draw22%

Istiqlol win64%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · TBC

RoundMatchday 19

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barki Tajik

Istiqlol

8Days since last match33

Last match: 10 Oct · Vysshaya Liga

Last match: 15 Sept · Vysshaya Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
6	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · istiqlol winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Istiqlol a 64% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barki Tajik v Istiqlol~~0.76 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 37~~6 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barki Tajik win	14%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Istiqlol win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Barki Tajik or draw	36%	–	–
Barki Tajik clean sheet	16%	–	–
Istiqlol clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.7 13.1 12.5 7.9 3.9 1 5.1 10.2 9.1 5.8 2.8 2 2.1 3.8 3.5 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barki Tajik down, Istiqlol across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Vysshaya Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Vysshaya Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.7% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barki Tajik at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Istiqlol away: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.76 goals for Barki Tajik, 1.90 for Istiqlol. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~IST 2–0 BAR · IST 2–1 BAR · BAR 0–1 IST · BAR 1–5 IST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Vysshaya Liga this season · since 27 June

BARKI TAJIK

DDDWWL2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

ISTIQLOL

WLWWWL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Regar-TadAZ	18	+16	40
2	Istiqlol	17	+17	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	18	+17	35
4	CSKA Pomir	17	−1	27
5	Khujand	17	+5	27
6	Barki Tajik	17	−1	24
7	Ravshan	18	+4	23
8	Eskhata	18	−10	20
9	Khatlon	17	0	20
10	Parvoz	18	−18	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	17	−8	12
12	Istaravshan	18	−21	6