Tishreen v Hottin prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Tishreen 0–1 Hottin TISHREEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tishreen win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.703

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tishreen win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Tishreen v Hottin
2′Much as we predicted: Tishreen was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–29–27
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tishreen win 38%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Tishreen win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Tishreen 0–0 Hottin
46′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
46′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 9–24–67
46′SECOND HALF Tishreen 0–0 Hottin
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Tishreen win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
48′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–21 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
55′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
64′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Tishreen win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
72′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Tishreen win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
79′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
79′Hottin score on 79′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
79′We said Tishreen at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–12–87
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Tishreen 0–1 Hottin
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Tishreen win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Hottin win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 78%)
FTFULL TIME Tishreen 0–1 Hottin
FTTishreen 0–1 Hottin · Tishreen win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tishreen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tishreen 44%, draw 29%, Hottin 27%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Tishreen v HottinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tishreen win44%

Draw29%

Hottin win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tishreen

Hottin

13Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Hottin	2	0	2
12	Tishreen	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tishreen winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Tishreen a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tishreen v Hottin~~1.25 – 0.90

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 2~~12 v 9

~~The market · Tishreen win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tishreen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tishreen win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	29%	29%	0
Hottin win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Tishreen or draw	73%	68%	+5
Tishreen clean sheet	41%	–	–
Hottin clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.6%

0123450 12.1 10.6 4.8 1 14.6 12.6 5.7 2 9.0 7.9 3.6 3 3.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tishreen down, Hottin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tishreen at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hottin away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Tishreen, 0.90 for Hottin. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIS 0–1 HOT · HOT 0–2 TIS · TIS 0–0 HOT · HOT 0–0 TIS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

TISHREEN

D0–0

HOTTIN

DD1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Karama	2	+3	4
2	Shorta	2	+1	4
3	Al Ittihad	1	+2	3
4	Damascus Al-Ahli	2	+1	3
5	Al Wahda	2	0	3
6	Jaish	2	0	3
7	Qamishli	2	0	3
8	Al Nawaeir	2	−2	3
9	Hottin	2	0	2
10	Wathba	1	0	1
11	Al Taliya	1	0	1
12	Tishreen	1	0	1
13	Horriya	2	−2	1
14	Foutoua	2	−3	0