Shorta v Foutoua prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Shorta 3–1 Foutoua SHORTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shorta win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shorta just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Shorta 39%, draw 26%, Foutoua 35%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Shorta v FoutouaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shorta win39%

Draw26%

Foutoua win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

VenueTishreen Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shorta

Foutoua

8Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Shorta	2	+1	4
14	Foutoua	2	−3	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shorta winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Shorta a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shorta v Foutoua~~1.37 – 1.27

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 0~~3 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shorta win	39%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Foutoua win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Shorta or draw	65%	–	–
Shorta clean sheet	29%	–	–
Foutoua clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 9.3 5.8 2.5 1 10.0 12.0 7.6 3.3 2 6.7 8.2 5.1 2.2 3 3.1 3.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shorta down, Foutoua across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 942 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shorta at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Foutoua away: 0.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Shorta, 1.27 for Foutoua. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FOU 0–1 SHO · SHO 1–0 FOU · SHO 1–0 FOU · FOU 2–0 SHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

SHORTA

DW0–0 · 1–0

FOUTOUA

LL0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Karama	3	+4	7
2	Hottin	3	+1	5
3	Shorta	2	+1	4
4	Horriya	3	0	4
5	Al Wahda	3	0	4
6	Jaish	3	0	4
7	Al Ittihad	1	+2	3
8	Damascus Al-Ahli	2	+1	3
9	Qamishli	3	−1	3
10	Al Nawaeir	2	−2	3
11	Wathba	1	0	1
12	Tishreen	2	−1	1
13	Al Taliya	2	−2	1
14	Foutoua	2	−3	0