Hottin v Horriya prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Hottin 1–1 Horriya HOTTIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hottin win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.808

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hottin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hottin 47%, draw 28%, Horriya 25%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Hottin v HorriyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Hottin win47%

Draw28%

Horriya win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hottin

Horriya

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Hottin	1	0	1
13	Horriya	1	−2	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hottin winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Hottin a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hottin v Horriya~~1.35 – 0.88

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 0~~8 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hottin win	47%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Horriya win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Hottin or draw	75%	–	–
Hottin clean sheet	42%	–	–
Horriya clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 11.2 9.6 4.2 1 14.5 12.3 5.5 2 9.7 8.3 3.7 3 4.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hottin down, Horriya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 936 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hottin at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Horriya away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Hottin, 0.88 for Horriya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HOT 0–2 HOR · HOR 0–1 HOT · HOT 4–1 HOR · HOR 2–2 HOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

HOTTIN

D1–1

HORRIYA

L1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Karama	2	+3	4
2	Shorta	2	+1	4
3	Al Ittihad	1	+2	3
4	Damascus Al-Ahli	2	+1	3
5	Jaish	2	0	3
6	Qamishli	2	0	3
7	Al Nawaeir	2	−2	3
8	Hottin	1	0	1
9	Wathba	1	0	1
10	Al Taliya	1	0	1
11	Tishreen	1	0	1
12	Al Wahda	1	−1	0
13	Horriya	1	−2	0
14	Foutoua	1	−2	0