Horriya v Al Taliya prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Horriya 2–0 Al Taliya AL TALIYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Taliya win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.699

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Taliya win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Taliya 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 32–32–36
1′KICK-OFF Horriya v Al Taliya
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Al Taliya win 35%)
26′A goal for Horriya on 25′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–9
26′We said Al Taliya at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Horriya 1–0 Al Taliya
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Al Taliya win: 36% at kick-off, 9% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Horriya win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Al Taliya win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
45′HALF-TIME Horriya 1–0 Al Taliya
46′SECOND HALF Horriya 1–0 Al Taliya
53′We said Al Taliya at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
95′Horriya score on 90′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Horriya 2–0 Al Taliya
FTFULL TIME Horriya 2–0 Al Taliya
FTHorriya 2–0 Al Taliya · Al Taliya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al Taliya just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Horriya 32%, draw 32%, Al Taliya 36%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Horriya v Al TaliyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Horriya win32%

Draw32%

Al Taliya win36%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Horriya

Al Taliya

6Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Al Taliya	1	0	1
13	Horriya	2	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al taliya winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Al Taliya a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Horriya v Al Taliya~~0.88 – 0.96

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~13 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Horriya win	32%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Al Taliya win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Horriya or draw	64%	–	–
Horriya clean sheet	39%	–	–
Al Taliya clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.4%

0123450 16.4 15.3 7.3 2.4 1 14.0 12.8 6.2 2.0 2 6.2 5.7 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Horriya down, Al Taliya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Horriya at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Taliya away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Horriya, 0.96 for Al Taliya. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HOR 0–1 ALT · ALT 1–0 HOR · ALT 1–0 HOR · HOR 0–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

HORRIYA

LD1–3 · 1–1

AL TALIYA

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Karama	2	+3	4
2	Shorta	2	+1	4
3	Al Ittihad	1	+2	3
4	Damascus Al-Ahli	2	+1	3
5	Al Wahda	2	0	3
6	Jaish	2	0	3
7	Qamishli	2	0	3
8	Al Nawaeir	2	−2	3
9	Hottin	2	0	2
10	Wathba	1	0	1
11	Al Taliya	1	0	1
12	Tishreen	1	0	1
13	Horriya	2	−2	1
14	Foutoua	2	−3	0