Al Wahda v Jaish prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:31

Al Wahda 1–1 Jaish AL WAHDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Wahda win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Wahda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Wahda 54%, draw 27%, Jaish 19%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Al Wahda v JaishBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Wahda win54%

Draw27%

Jaish win19%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Wahda

Jaish

4Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Wahda	2	0	3
6	Jaish	2	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al wahda winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Al Wahda a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Wahda v Jaish~~1.43 – 0.71

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Wahda win	54%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Jaish win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Al Wahda or draw	81%	–	–
Al Wahda clean sheet	49%	–	–
Jaish clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%

0123450 12.2 8.6 3.1 1 16.8 11.6 4.2 2 11.8 8.2 3.0 3 5.7 4.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Wahda down, Jaish across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 938 Premier League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Wahda at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jaish away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Al Wahda, 0.71 for Jaish. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAI 0–1 ALW · ALW 5–1 JAI · JAI 1–3 ALW · JAI 1–0 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

AL WAHDA

LW0–1 · 1–0

JAISH

LW0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Karama	2	+3	4
2	Shorta	2	+1	4
3	Al Ittihad	1	+2	3
4	Damascus Al-Ahli	2	+1	3
5	Al Wahda	2	0	3
6	Jaish	2	0	3
7	Qamishli	2	0	3
8	Al Nawaeir	2	−2	3
9	Hottin	2	0	2
10	Wathba	1	0	1
11	Al Taliya	1	0	1
12	Tishreen	1	0	1
13	Horriya	2	−2	1
14	Foutoua	2	−3	0