Al Karama v Al Wahda prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al KaramaDrawAl Wahda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Karama 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Karama are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Karama 46%, draw 26%, Al Wahda 28%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Karama v Al WahdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Karama win46%

Draw26%

Al Wahda win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueKhaled bin Walid Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Karama

Al Wahda

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Premier League (Syria)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al karama winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Al Karama a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Karama v Al Wahda~~1.44 – 1.06

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Karama win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al Wahda win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Al Karama or draw	72%	–	–
Al Karama clean sheet	35%	–	–
Al Wahda clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.5 8.9 4.7 1 11.9 12.1 6.4 2.3 2 8.4 8.7 4.6 3 4.1 4.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Karama down, Al Wahda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 942 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Karama at home: 3.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Wahda away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Al Karama, 1.06 for Al Wahda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALW 1–3 ALK · ALK 0–2 ALW · ALW 3–2 ALK · ALK 1–2 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

AL KARAMA

DWW0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1

AL WAHDA

LWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Karama	3	+4	7
2	Hottin	3	+1	5
3	Shorta	2	+1	4
4	Horriya	3	0	4
5	Al Wahda	3	0	4
6	Jaish	3	0	4
7	Al Ittihad	1	+2	3
8	Damascus Al-Ahli	2	+1	3
9	Qamishli	3	−1	3
10	Al Nawaeir	2	−2	3
11	Wathba	1	0	1
12	Tishreen	2	−1	1
13	Al Taliya	2	−2	1
14	Foutoua	2	−3	0