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Servette FC v FC Vaduz

Servette FC
2–1Full time
FC Vaduz

Super League · SAT 24 OCT · Rheinpark Stadion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Servette FC 2–1 FC Vaduz SERVETTE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Servette FC win56%
The market said46%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.290
The market’s Brier score0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Servette FC win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Servette FC was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Servette FC v FC Vaduz
  4. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Servette FC
  5. 14′We published Servette FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Servette FC 1–0 FC Vaduz
  7. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Servette FC win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
  8. 16′Servette FC ahead on 15′ through Thomas Lopes. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
  9. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Steve Rouiller · Servette FC
  10. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Pedrinho · Servette FC
  11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–15–8
  12. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' FC Vaduz · On: Mattia walker · Off: Luca Mack
  13. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Milos Cocic · FC Vaduz
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Servette FC 1–0 FC Vaduz
  15. 47′HALF-TIME Servette FC 1–0 FC Vaduz
  16. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Julian Stark · FC Vaduz
  17. 59′We published Servette FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  18. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Vaduz · On: Dejan Djokic · Off: Juan Cabrera
  19. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Nicolas Hasler · FC Vaduz
  20. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Servette FC · On: David Douline · Off: Jarell Simo
  21. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Servette FC · On: Tiemoko Ouattara · Off: Mathis Lambourde
  22. 73′We published Servette FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  23. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Vaduz · On: Daniel Kasper · Off: Marcel Monsberger
  24. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Vaduz · On: mischa beeli · Off: Nicolas Hasler
  25. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Vaduz · On: Mischa Eberhard · Off: Julian Stark
  26. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Servette FC win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
  27. 77′We said Servette FC at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–64–13
  28. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Servette FC 1–1 FC Vaduz
  29. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Servette FC win: 56% at kick-off, 23% now
  30. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Servette FC win 87%)
  31. 78′Servette FC have had 18 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 22–66–12
  32. 79′Lutfi Dalipi scores for FC Vaduz on 77′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 20–68–12
  33. 80′We said Servette FC at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
  34. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Servette FC · On: Lilian Njoh · Off: Thomas Lopes
  35. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Servette FC win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
  36. 83′We said Servette FC at 56%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–8
  37. 84′25 shots for Servette FC, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 12–80–7
  38. 85′We published Servette FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
  39. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Servette FC 2–1 FC Vaduz
  40. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Servette FC win: 56% at kick-off, 93% now
  41. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Servette FC win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 80%)
  42. 86′85′: Kingstone Mutandwa on the scoresheet for Servette FC, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
  43. 88′We published Servette FC at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  44. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Servette FC · On: Teo Allix · Off: Jesper Karlsson
  45. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Servette FC win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  46. 94′Full time, 2–1. We called Servette FC at 56% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  47. FTFULL TIME Servette FC 2–1 FC Vaduz
  48. FTServette FC 2–1 FC Vaduz · Servette FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Servette FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Servette FC 56%, draw 21%, FC Vaduz 23%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Servette FC v FC VaduzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Servette FC win56%
Draw21%
FC Vaduz win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueRheinpark Stadion

Line-ups

Servette FC

4-2-3-1

FC Vaduz

4-1-2-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Servette FC

FC Vaduz

8Days since last match13

Last match: 16 Oct · Schweizer Cup

Last match: 11 Oct · the Swiss Super League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Servette FC10+113
10FC Vaduz1009

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Servette FC

4-2-3-1

1 E. Gertmonas

17 Houboulang Mendes

15 M. Burch

4 S. Rouiller

18 B. Mazikou

6 Pedro Naressi

20 Jarell Njike Simo

22 M. Lambourde

36 Thomas Lopes

21 J. Karlsson

7 K. Mutandwa

Coach · J. Gourvennec

Substitutes

34 · T. Allix

78 · L. Besson

28 · D. Douline

23 · Q. Maceiras

90 · S. Mráz

14 · L. Njoh

77 · T. Ouattara

35 · A. Vincent

39 · Eronis Haxhiu

FC Vaduz

4-1-2-1-2

25 L. Schaffran

4 N. Hasler

27 N. Lang

5 L. Berisha

7 D. Schwizer

20 L. Mack

17 J. Stark

10 Juan Cabrera

28 M. Ćoćić

11 L. Dalipi

9 M. Monsberger

Coach · M. Schneider

Substitutes

37 · L. Celentano

19 · D. Djokic

22 · M. Eberhard

23 · M. Hammerich

18 · D. Kasper

29 · M. Sawadogo

30 · Mattia Walker

1 · B. Büchel

14 · M. Beeli

Our number · servette fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
56% The market46%
Us56%
Market46%

We make Servette FC a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Servette FC v FC Vaduz2.17 – 1.33
Form · last six in Super League this season · since 30 AugW3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 13 v 96 v 10
The market · Servette FC win46% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:12
Our probability · Servette FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Servette FC win56%46%+10
Draw21%25%−4
FC Vaduz win23%29%−6
Over 2.5 goals68%65%+3
Both teams to score65%66%−1
Over 1.5 goals86%84%+2
Over 3.5 goals46%45%+1
Servette FC or draw77%71%+6
Servette FC clean sheet27%––
FC Vaduz clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.5 3.8 2.7 1 6.3 9.0 5.7 2.6 2 7.1 9.2 6.1 2.7 3 5.2 6.6 4.4 4 2.9 3.7 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Servette FC down, FC Vaduz across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Super League this season · since 30 Aug

SERVETTE FC

LLWWLW0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 3–0

FC VADUZ

WLWLLW5–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Lugano10+2428
2BSC Young Boys10+1522
3FC Sion10+619
4FC ST. Gallen10−216
5FC Zurich10−414
6Servette FC10+113
7FC Basel 189310−313
8FC Luzern10−512
9FC Thun10−1010
10FC Vaduz1009
11Grasshoppers10−138
12Lausanne10−96

The competition's standings before kick-off.